Us Politics · resolved market
Tony Gonzales out as US Rep by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac8482d43af848e6802f2944ac55b16b452c762fd26b37bb0275417341518a2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87a8…445cbacked No | 1c | 3,739$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 69c | 2,932$2,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.56 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 18c | 1,666$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.88 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 10c | 1,100$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 12c | 850$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 16c | 750$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 18c | 750$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 17cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 11c | 650$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 16c | 600$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…399abacked No | 57c | 113.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 103$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 35c | 102.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…92b4backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…5217backed No | 58c | 88.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 12c | 88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 58c | 57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.35per pick | 62cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked No | 59c | 54.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3710…a430backed No | 58c | 43.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x147b…2646backed No | 55c | 24.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fb…c25cbacked No | 62c | 22.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b09…68babacked No | 55c | 20.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…aa1dbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.