Commodities · resolved market
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2234db8294ec63c7e41dfad5e5a33f6451e6d1be2d07f9709836ed99533eeba4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 1,750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 8c | 1,432$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.62 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 67c | 1,195$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.36 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked No | 12c | 953.11$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.47 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 31c | 908.56$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.94 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 12c | 850$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 15c | 599.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 35c | 378.55$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.9 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…c4d1backed Yes | 54c | 257.23$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.23 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…abc2backed Yes | 28c | 177.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.01 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 26c | 153.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.72 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a0…cb70backed Yes | 13c | 126.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.34 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 74c | 120$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 21c | 111.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.35 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…6603backed Yes | 19c | 111$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.01 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…f76fbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +162.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 17c | 89.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.57 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…a4b9backed Yes | 31c | 88.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef95…e3aebacked Yes | 35c | 88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 31c | 60.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02fe…a1b5backed Yes | 36c | 55.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +175.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 22c | 53.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf61a…615fbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d2…75b6backed No | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6944…3902backed No | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 60c | 47.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 31c | 39.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee9…a6c1backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 28.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 69c | 23.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…6020backed No | 72c | 18.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?this page
- Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?No won
- Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?No won
- Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?No won
- Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?No won
- Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?No won
- Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?No won
- Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?No won
- Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.