Commodities · resolved market
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfba58a8e555d71917ef54fac1fca1649194f1ee6b5af6ac4ead3a0b383f5f11c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,310$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…3f79backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +242.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a9…e80cbacked Yes | 15c | 362.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…f154backed Yes | 11c | 250$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df3…a4b9backed Yes | 17c | 234.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 14c | 179.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…5892backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a0…cb70backed Yes | 17c | 61.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3a…291fbacked Yes | 29c | 37.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 71c | 17.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…9774backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?this page
- Will 10-14 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?No won
- Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?Yes won
- Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?No won
- Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?No won
- Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?No won
- Will 40-44 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?No won
- Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?No won
- Will fewer than 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.