TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $165 before 2026??

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,906
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,746

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,906 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c5,928$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-78.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes42c2,425$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.2199038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes1c1,282$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.97120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10c6…19b6backed No50c878.66$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.33771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+28.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c722.04$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.881,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1755…5aacbacked Yes35c708.73$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.711,32646.9%622 W · 704 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea72…16a2backed Yes2c678$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes35c591.77$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.1160229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84d1…a8eebacked No76c575.48$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.32853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc86…f1a6backed Yes2c547$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1701435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick55cpaid-50.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No59c432.67$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.3756548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc2…3c7fbacked Yes39c400$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1561963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.2wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+74.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes46c396.13$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.0181240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes4c362.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.87704.3%3 W · 67 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-75%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e32…8a33backed No72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.683100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3590…148cbacked Yes31c290.32$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58ff…7e02backed Yes56c262.31$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1482416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes47c261.64$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.0535151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb01…02e5backed Yes49c221$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.3723253.4%124 W · 108 L+18.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9230…63b2backed No53c202.18$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.02633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes34c196.39$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2419934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Yes55c160$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a04…793dbacked No46c152$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.08666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes16c150.7$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.799124.2%22 W · 69 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3826…84efbacked Yes30c150$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No47c150$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.57848.7%38 W · 40 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ae6…7485backed Yes42c142.85$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes21c139.94$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8421820.2%44 W · 174 L-22.2wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-54.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No69c131.77$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.457332.9%24 W · 49 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No49c110$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.6543838.8%170 W · 268 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes35c109$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.286338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d9f…c9c6backed Yes19c103.8$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.38100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd2f…fe3ebacked Yes54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb911…a649backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1580%0 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7bdd…a74dbacked Yes46c97.83$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Yes33c87.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes48c83.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd6c…68d9backed Yes47c76.2$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd9f…e6c6backed No69c72.07$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed No49c63.66$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes33c53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.234452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe728…ee58backed No76c50.13$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.172661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1612035%42 W · 78 L-10.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-38%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb65…3115backed Yes33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.250%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65f9…8e0abacked Yes55c39.87$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.93825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No73c38.52$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.457577.3%58 W · 17 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x16f3…1263backed No67c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe933…15d7backed No58c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No55c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.59835.7%35 W · 63 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa26e…17e3backed No80c17.71$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.59475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e06…f72bbacked No70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.53100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.