Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $185 before 2026??
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec6b60cb74dd913983f9752a7fbb16c319bb6ec30beaa410f9a50f085099169b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,552
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,552 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 1,800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 787$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.71 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 75c | 651.09$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.07 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 626$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e74…54e7backed No | 22c | 540$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 16c | 309.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…5400backed No | 22c | 177.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…68d9backed No | 23c | 154.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 13c | 129.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 23c | 126$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…3e11backed No | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf4…cc11backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x138b…0467backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 17c | 84.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 18c | 69.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb2…79e2backed Yes | 58c | 28.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 72c | 23.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…f9abbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $185 before 2026??this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $125 before 2026??No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $160 before 2026??No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $165 before 2026??No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $170 before 2026??Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $190 before 2026??Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $200 before 2026??No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $215 before 2026??No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $230 before 2026??No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $245 before 2026??No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.