TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $190 before 2026??

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$66,123
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,215

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,123 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c14,681$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.591,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No6c5,844$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.6460229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No3c5,600$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.5147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-78.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ecb…514cbacked No59c1,800$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5a2…c2c2backed No32c1,626$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.82875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+36.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84d1…a8eebacked Yes71c1,214$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.392853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes49c1,192$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.5799038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6723…a540backed No39c946$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.9440%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes61c903.54$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.8656548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5665…32cdbacked No63c754.05$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.581942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1755…5aacbacked Yes57c701.61$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.091,32646.9%622 W · 704 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes64c600$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21426237%97 W · 165 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-34.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes71c596.98$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.9381240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4451…fcbebacked No51c583.6$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.9340%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6636…bf37backed Yes68c482.97$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.04742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-32.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes29c476.11$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.496631.8%21 W · 45 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc2…3c7fbacked No39c447.9$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.491963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.2wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+74.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No23c430.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3121820.2%44 W · 174 L-22.2wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-54.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No12c425.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.089124.2%22 W · 69 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb01…02e5backed Yes54c409.31$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.6723253.4%124 W · 108 L+18.3wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc03…662bbacked No74c405.52$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes63c357.57$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.467332.9%24 W · 49 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e74…54e7backed No31c310$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-68.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45b0…ceebbacked No57c286.59$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.661758.8%10 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.18per pick41cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc91d…0a59backed Yes24c280$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeae5…a3fbbacked No75c246.67$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No27c229.98$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.297071.4%50 W · 20 L+6.4wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xce60…6705backed No27c225$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No71c200$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1426864.7%44 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x404a…19b2backed Yes75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.05250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed No73c200$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes79c185.36$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.781758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed No6c182.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1548234%164 W · 318 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc530…a9ddbacked Yes28c179.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+258.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes27c152.14$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.063721.6%8 W · 29 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick29cpaid+3.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb257…f221backed Yes35c152$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1288…dac9backed Yes73c150$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-64.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No75c134.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.394146.3%19 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3826…84efbacked Yes31c128.13$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.12425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No45c124.92$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6612035%42 W · 78 L-10.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-38%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No17c114.44$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2719934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9230…63b2backed Yes74c105$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-46%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd9f…e6c6backed No50c101$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd482…b402backed Yes50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e64…f51abacked Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd338…d1a0backed Yes56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.05250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cf4…cc11backed No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No37c86.54$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.25844.8%26 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d45…f974backed Yes31c80.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1646…dd89backed No44c75.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No20c74.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.227429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe728…ee58backed Yes50c69.35$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.532661.5%16 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes68c68.28$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.874452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbbe…b616backed No31c64.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d7b…a54bbacked Yes80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.52441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7b…19f1backed Yes80c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes76c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.443838.8%170 W · 268 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82b5…1542backed Yes34c58.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.33887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick51cpaid+70.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaff1…141ebacked Yes74c56.1$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7347…4012backed No28c53.57$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes72c53.57$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157848.7%38 W · 40 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9585…61d9backed Yes38c52.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes72c50.64$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2629323.2%68 W · 225 L-31.5wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-44.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7c30…7673backed Yes72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142466.7%16 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a69…dbc4backed Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9760…24a5backed Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdefe…17f4backed No79c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.54560%27 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd151…0a8abacked Yes42c49.95$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.95955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+34.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes60c48.28$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.313342.4%14 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed Yes67c45.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.011154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5874…05f7backed No44c39.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.69742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes57c34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.456963.8%44 W · 25 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa78…f40bbacked No72c33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7613751.1%70 W · 67 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes44c31.96$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9886338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.824356.8%138 W · 105 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8267…918dbacked Yes67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes51c29.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58df…621cbacked No72c27.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-38.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b2…9ac1backed Yes76c26.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c09…df0bbacked Yes52c22.02$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d0…4d2ebacked No80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick75cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02f1…a195backed Yes63c15.88$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes77c15.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.447577.3%58 W · 17 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.