Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $160 before 2026??
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15bd003006d913b0ba12a511f48e22d23a28dc56cb92cb77fb6c0d28ff250cfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 4,500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,331$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,802$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 30c | 1,718$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.17 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 74c | 541.29$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.76 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 59c | 480$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.88 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…1263backed Yes | 18c | 450$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…793dbacked No | 65c | 433.19$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 32c | 423.53$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.5 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9936…b470backed Yes | 57c | 233.23$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x852c…2453backed Yes | 19c | 230.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +243.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 62c | 220$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 192$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked Yes | 38c | 172.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 160.95$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…a649backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…148cbacked Yes | 20c | 148.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 27c | 127.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 70c | 117.52$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 25c | 114.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9f…c9c6backed Yes | 20c | 114.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 41c | 110$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba3b…b474backed Yes | 29c | 106.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2f…fe3ebacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ac…2698backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 79.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe82e…2193backed No | 61c | 78.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b8…b6ccbacked No | 44c | 70.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6272…4e64backed No | 58c | 51.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9464…f681backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 58c | 45.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe933…15d7backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…a4f6backed Yes | 40c | 27.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138b…0467backed Yes | 54c | 20.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 80c | 14.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $160 before 2026??this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $125 before 2026??No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $165 before 2026??No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $170 before 2026??Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $185 before 2026??Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $190 before 2026??Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $200 before 2026??No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $215 before 2026??No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $230 before 2026??No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $245 before 2026??No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.