Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $200 before 2026??
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4516d0a31be5e480bc34f0b03d24cd4cac0b9088694fac3f54793d2d7aa62e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 6,200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 26c | 1,631$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.36 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1288…dac9backed Yes | 8c | 1,294$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 1,123$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.83 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…efd0backed Yes | 11c | 551$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 38c | 528$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.75 | 232 | 53.4%124 W · 108 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 7c | 476.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 413.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 38c | 400$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 20c | 393.34$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.59 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 3c | 388.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd94…b271backed No | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 376.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 70 | 4.3%3 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…f66ebacked Yes | 6c | 335.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 11c | 331.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 14c | 306.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…c2c2backed No | 51c | 288.11$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.94 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb0…2a51backed No | 63c | 276$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 268.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 10c | 247.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…0363backed Yes | 10c | 228.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 11c | 226.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 36c | 206.19$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6677…4ea3backed Yes | 32c | 201.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 20c | 200.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…e7e6backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 197$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 7c | 195.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 51c | 106.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…b616backed No | 48c | 104.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…04b9backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e74…54e7backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ac…2698backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 64c | 94.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16b…8d7fbacked No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed No | 72c | 69.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…8843backed Yes | 34c | 69.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…63b2backed Yes | 36c | 64.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…7959backed Yes | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 22c | 50.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c2…1398backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55cf…6cd0backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 65c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6272…4e64backed Yes | 48c | 39.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…ee58backed No | 77c | 37.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff1…141ebacked Yes | 45c | 35.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd812…d5eebacked No | 49c | 34.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8290…543abacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdd…46fbbacked Yes | 45c | 24.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 68c | 22.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x074d…f2d3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $200 before 2026??this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $125 before 2026??No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $160 before 2026??No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $165 before 2026??No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $170 before 2026??Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $185 before 2026??Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $190 before 2026??Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $215 before 2026??No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $230 before 2026??No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit $245 before 2026??No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.