Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $180?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb215ee8e8c6d7b18867d4c50a053c520b475600e8e6a4875061c23773a13fa52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,544
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 40c | 15,001$5,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,053.9 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 62c | 8,333$5,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,164.58 | 1,327 | 46.9%623 W · 704 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,932$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.16 | 1,445 | 8.8%127 W · 1,318 L | -53.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 8c | 4,100$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed No | 6c | 3,438$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,288$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.15 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c4…d7ecbacked No | 28c | 877.72$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.2 | 348 | 39.1%136 W · 212 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 49c | 574.78$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.75 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 421.36$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.53 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 66c | 307.85$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.46 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 253$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 417 | 8.9%37 W · 380 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 23c | 230.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…83dbbacked No | 19c | 229.15$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10c6…19b6backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked No | 20c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 26c | 112.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 1,791 | 49.1%880 W · 911 L | +143.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed Yes | 24c | 111.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 16c | 109.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…c6efbacked Yes | 22c | 107.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.29 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 47c | 105$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2b…312fbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84a0…63a4backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.28per pick | 31cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc20a…2425backed No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 62c | 56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa854…3856backed No | 49c | 42.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 32c | 36.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 44c | 33.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1e…0a48backed Yes | 46c | 22.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…db7fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $180?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $165?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $170?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $175?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $185?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $190?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $195?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $200?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $205?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $210?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $220?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $225?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.