Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $190?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc02bc729b7d373ff69d6e5b7a7df224a1bc8f3e3037c7cbed63a07f2140b0c3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32c4…d7ecbacked No | 55c | 1,824$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.34 | 348 | 39.1%136 W · 212 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 35c | 1,780$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.57 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0f…a74ebacked Yes | 59c | 976.58$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 53c | 631.29$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.18 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 69c | 590.86$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.68 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…5ba3backed Yes | 20c | 462.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.42 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 22cpaid | +193.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc262…8982backed No | 50c | 429.6$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5d…18c7backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…4488backed No | 66c | 376.21$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 358.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 301.48$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.12 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…f63abacked Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 33c | 278.96$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.21 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 29c | 225$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.75 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked Yes | 45c | 219.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.09 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked Yes | 45c | 210.32$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…5ff2backed No | 71c | 184.57$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cde…a22dbacked Yes | 16c | 160$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed No | 50c | 156$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe19…b213backed Yes | 44c | 139.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 33c | 139.27$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 48c | 130.18$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.49 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 37c | 124.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 43c | 111.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 13c | 89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…17f4backed Yes | 53c | 80.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 16c | 79.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc3…ad14backed No | 76c | 52.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…756bbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffb…c0a6backed Yes | 35c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…50e0backed Yes | 49c | 43.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 57c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 168 | 44.6%75 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 38.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 44c | 35.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 47c | 30.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…3f18backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224c…34ebbacked Yes | 39c | 26.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $190?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $165?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $170?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $175?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $180?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $185?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $195?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $200?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $205?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $210?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $220?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $225?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.