Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $185?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b34c5a154a59bc39a49d6e4c2f052e7727e4811eaf5c5197ae3201533607bb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,601
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 9c | 4,884$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,444.31 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed Yes | 15c | 4,005$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,386.18 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…4652backed No | 44c | 4,000$1,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,745.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 2,213$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.74 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 55c | 2,079$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.19 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked No | 36c | 2,000$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 64c | 1,568$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,246$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.91 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c4…d7ecbacked No | 40c | 728.4$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.34 | 348 | 39.1%136 W · 212 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes | 59c | 568.58$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed No | 70c | 543.71$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.3 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 49c | 323.45$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.03 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 49c | 274$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.87 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 253.67$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.31 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 168 | 44.6%75 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d14…cd50backed Yes | 56c | 179.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 18c | 158.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.05 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bca…05d8backed Yes | 37c | 156$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 69c | 110$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 63c | 106.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 34 | 79.4%27 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 100.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.42 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa854…3856backed No | 73c | 92.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed Yes | 49c | 85.33$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2b…cd15backed No | 61c | 81.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed Yes | 56c | 73.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6c…487bbacked No | 70c | 70.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 46c | 60.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 49c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…9f1abacked Yes | 53c | 52.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17a1…43fdbacked No | 68c | 36.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked No | 65c | 34.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…60f1backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…29dbbacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfe…b732backed Yes | 72c | 27.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f47…fc0ebacked Yes | 72c | 27.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 45c | 23.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bc…747abacked Yes | 70c | 21.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 62c | 20.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…5ff2backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $185?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $165?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $170?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $175?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $180?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $190?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $195?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $200?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $205?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $210?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $220?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 2 above $225?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.