Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57d848d7d476a7a332c0f7e228e2c9ec47cb87bae5ed49d00023180be7911569
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 50c | 3,761$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,871.53 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10c6…19b6backed Yes | 50c | 2,200$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 41c | 1,640$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.68 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed Yes | 55c | 1,214$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.85 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 49c | 1,210$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.54 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69c3…8a32backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 66c | 889.73$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.86 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…ad54backed Yes | 49c | 654.78$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 336.02$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.07 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x148e…9a62backed Yes | 19c | 284$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 17cpaid | +323.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadc0…1934backed Yes | 19c | 221$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d47…e855backed Yes | 39c | 183.73$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcba…04ddbacked No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 49c | 125.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.36 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…1c02backed Yes | 25c | 120.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 46c | 120$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 100.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 95.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed No | 61c | 83.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 56c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed No | 48c | 70.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 46c | 67.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…fb85backed No | 75c | 66.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…72a6backed Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac9…c4cabacked Yes | 38c | 55.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…d868backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ae…2f79backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 42c | 48.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x708c…b1a2backed Yes | 59c | 48.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…7af4backed No | 43c | 46.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6266…bd34backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…31a4backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed Yes | 64c | 27.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…60f8backed No | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 68c | 20.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…e2d7backed No | 75c | 15.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7eb…eb13backed No | 71c | 14.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of March?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $120 end of March?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of March?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of March?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of March?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of March?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of March?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 end of March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.