Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9514e066262206b537790c495b811493c33d84930102f8f4ea134a9d045f53c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd509…d6b7backed No | 27c | 600$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…0a7bbacked Yes | 73c | 600$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 18c | 479.26$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.78 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 427.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 417 | 8.9%37 W · 380 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 12c | 390$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed No | 16c | 345$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 344.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 1,445 | 8.8%127 W · 1,318 L | -53.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 7c | 275.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 10c | 240.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 1,791 | 49.1%880 W · 911 L | +143.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked No | 32c | 184.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.06 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 17c | 59.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 23c | 52.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 71c | 24.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 68c | 18.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 164 | 26.8%44 W · 120 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of March?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $120 end of March?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of March?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of March?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of March?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of March?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of March?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 end of March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.