TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$132,511
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$139,217

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,511 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc97b…47e5backed No75c27,926$20,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,987.911855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick60cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes25c22,715$5,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,686.4334534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf189…8e47backed No78c6,704$5,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,444.823857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No73c5,851$4,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,569.0393040.3%375 W · 555 L-67.5wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4060…3ec3backed Yes23c5,508$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.6429264%187 W · 105 L+47.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+41.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x74b4…6beabacked No77c5,000$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1503666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+21.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb7ef…812cbacked Yes39c2,340$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.725143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes42c1,588$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.129447.3%139 W · 155 L+34.3wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes48c1,358$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.3914031.4%44 W · 96 L-0.6wins0.00per pick32cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f3…844ebacked Yes22c1,096$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.1230438.8%118 W · 186 L+20.0wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfdd…e70ebacked Yes62c1,087$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.34728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdac5…ae24backed Yes18c1,029$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.0519855.6%110 W · 88 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a2…c9b7backed No68c1,027$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.791643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e4…f459backed Yes51c896.1$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.97616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-58.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed No74c584.17$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.881136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+74.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Yes16c569.36$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.021,26524.5%310 W · 955 L-56.9wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-44.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedc8…3296backed No73c564.01$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.2425661.3%157 W · 99 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xec4d…be21backed Yes34c531.56$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.73714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-72.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes26c528$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.28214.8%1 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.20per pick25cpaid-68.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x65d4…b7e3backed No77c518.01$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.012378.3%18 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick74cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes47c490.12$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.434820.8%10 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes18c449.09$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.921,0249.1%93 W · 931 L-25.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x403f…94f1backed Yes39c434.8$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.6720443.6%89 W · 115 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes34c383.58$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.6911929.4%35 W · 84 L-18.7wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-47.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x1da8…aa05backed No79c379.75$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.751668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+61.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes47c364$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.7214429.9%43 W · 101 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes40c339.59$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.535334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes23c330.61$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9523323.6%55 W · 178 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7df8…8e9dbacked Yes27c330$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked No12c314.29$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.582548%12 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+98%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x714d…c177backed Yes38c301.6$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.61616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid+66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes6c300$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed Yes28c287.57$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010743%46 W · 61 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfab0…bd9cbacked Yes35c285$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.191080%8 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+33.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x929f…9aa1backed Yes16c268.23$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0450%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed No75c248.32$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.797950.6%40 W · 39 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes27c244.73$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.825942.4%25 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Yes59c236.85$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.163525.7%9 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-44.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe134…b4a7backed Yes59c221.54$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.2940%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeda5…e16dbacked Yes18c213.32$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8412538.4%48 W · 77 L+11.5wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+28.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes26c203.54$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1718440.2%74 W · 110 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked No79c200$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-42%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf035…052abacked Yes32c200$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.31per pick49cpaid-69.2%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes61c200$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1223218.8%6 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid+167.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbce2…de8bbacked Yes26c198.15$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes27c183.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1330534.8%106 W · 199 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf400…1620backed No72c176$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x566c…3d03backed Yes25c173.54$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.25236.5%19 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadb5…4d50backed Yes56c162.16$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.012842.9%12 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No71c152$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.461844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes41c145.21$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.939745.4%44 W · 53 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes47c125.64$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.675543.6%24 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5154…a301backed Yes28c125$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358955.1%49 W · 40 L+13.2wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+47.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes12c103.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.448051.3%41 W · 39 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f71…719abacked No43c102$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.65683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick59cpaid+45.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8d8…31f1backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2640%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2716050.6%81 W · 79 L+13.7wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5844…5bd4backed No35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+149.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf98…4461backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2f3…c13cbacked No38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2131…7325backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x126e…c360backed Yes28c88.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.635438.9%21 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d91…3578backed Yes63c87.3$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aa1…9345backed No65c83.66$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.37757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+22%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f84…b4c4backed Yes21c82.2$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.282751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf646…79dbbacked Yes54c78.81$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes51c78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.787832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.9wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8ead…f333backed Yes62c72.58$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+95.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x073e…8416backed Yes28c71.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.056526.2%17 W · 48 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x813e…5ff6backed No56c66.23$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes53c62.67$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.031,04534.6%362 W · 683 L-93.1wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd35d…ec11backed Yes65c61.53$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.991844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ed…7ee9backed Yes50c58.01$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.22737%10 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes51c58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5811133.3%37 W · 74 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbcd3…1a5abacked No79c57.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.991952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x270b…e632backed No37c56.89$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.033920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82cd…d7d8backed No35c53$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.451070%7 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick47cpaid+44.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb307…9c25backed No76c51.01$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.454425%11 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-30.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No67c50.53$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6930839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.52450%12 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5c2…5b5fbacked No73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa583…0695backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+81.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd20…6159backed Yes64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-81.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2c8a…5d15backed Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.51330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked Yes65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.54440.9%18 W · 26 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-20.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x608f…9065backed No36c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325100%5 W · 0 L+2.9wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+184%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd83f…03b1backed Yes64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes66c49$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.346653%35 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed Yes63c48.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.346155.7%34 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x058b…8481backed No44c45.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.54771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+76%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cbe…2520backed Yes61c41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.01560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d75…4e46backed No78c40.74$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.98887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick74cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed No55c37.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.74634.8%16 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65c1…d279backed Yes67c35.64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.88650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb431…82ecbacked No57c35.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.373043.3%13 W · 17 L-5.2wins-0.17per pick61cpaid-34.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf610…741cbacked Yes57c34.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.581040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcab…e9b8backed Yes50c27.42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.661258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+31.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x134e…d718backed No77c25.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.963971.8%28 W · 11 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5ce…2fa6backed No61c23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.971637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+51.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.