Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4605b545ccc44a878de591b02be1a73d17e37953aebf67b3a22363b38d09bf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc97b…47e5backed No | 52c | 4,846$2,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,517.07 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 48c | 4,622$2,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,398.29 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 52c | 3,898$2,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,042.74 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 54c | 2,792$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.95 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 62c | 2,095$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.71 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 49c | 2,090$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.76 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a2…c9b7backed Yes | 49c | 1,596$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bc…81cebacked Yes | 79c | 1,440$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.59 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 47c | 1,343$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.22 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 1,193$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a57…7b0abacked Yes | 54c | 987.99$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed No | 54c | 956.71$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 20c | 732.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.87 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…94f1backed Yes | 49c | 662.53$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.89 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked No | 37c | 555$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.35 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed No | 58c | 508.54$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.95 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 505.38$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.08 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 54c | 483$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.82 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd292…b066backed No | 58c | 427$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.39 | 24 | 95.8%23 W · 1 L | +5.7wins | +0.24per pick | 72cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed No | 54c | 258.46$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.57 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…812cbacked Yes | 58c | 254.51$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.66 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Yes | 40c | 244.79$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.01 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 16c | 239$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 79c | 212.5$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…3d03backed Yes | 50c | 200.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.14 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 22c | 189.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb5…4d50backed Yes | 49c | 184.75$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.75 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 148$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.11 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…a899backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26bb…03cfbacked Yes | 41c | 137.48$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.67 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 44c | 130.86$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.71 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb453…bed9backed No | 55c | 125$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…d359backed Yes | 55c | 122.19$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 60c | 116$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 67c | 114.79$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 59c | 103$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 100.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…b1e6backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 54c | 93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 30c | 89.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked No | 51c | 72.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 70.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…3c56backed Yes | 21c | 70.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d66…79cabacked Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…023cbacked No | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Yes | 63c | 60.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaae5…6c45backed Yes | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Yes | 61c | 54.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 55c | 45.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Yes | 44c | 44.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 51c | 36.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d4…f923backed Yes | 45c | 25.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31e5…e2a2backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4660…f98cbacked Yes | 77c | 19.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00cd…c0aebacked No | 56c | 19.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…1de3backed Yes | 71c | 15.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in July?this page
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $62 in July?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $44 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $46 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.