Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd235287947f4ecae00a7e203c9d1e9fcbdf8027a258986097ed276643ff24425
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 15c | 19,532$2,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,890.67 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Yes | 11c | 2,343$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.27 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Yes | 14c | 2,087$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.16 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 10c | 1,666$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.6 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 13c | 1,343$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.06 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 12c | 1,194$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.64 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed Yes | 9c | 999.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 16c | 942.97$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.25 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed Yes | 8c | 885.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…812cbacked Yes | 9c | 789.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19ee…5394backed Yes | 1c | 771.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 700$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…94f1backed Yes | 18c | 508.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.21 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 18c | 491.94$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.97 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 16c | 415.32$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…8363backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 22c | 342.67$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.83 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 7c | 292.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed No | 75c | 259.67$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…775dbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ad…ff65backed Yes | 29c | 245.07$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb69…361ebacked Yes | 29c | 217.04$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked No | 73c | 207.03$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c58…27eabacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78f…218ebacked Yes | 14c | 199.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 15c | 169.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 74c | 138$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x628c…c651backed Yes | 15c | 134.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4660…f98cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 75c | 36.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…9795backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in July?this page
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $62 in July?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $44 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $46 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.