Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3477b553bbcb1c9f4a30555445ed39df1556535a577ac893403042f4e57b14a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $220,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 7c | 43,788$3,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,019.69 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…c177backed Yes | 10c | 4,355$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 2,191$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a2…c9b7backed Yes | 10c | 2,019$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.91 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 7c | 1,571$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.46 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,465$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 5c | 1,200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 20c | 1,120$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.67 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Yes | 12c | 1,046$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.55 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 14c | 999.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.46 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df8…8e9dbacked Yes | 6c | 942.37$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…812cbacked Yes | 6c | 911$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Yes | 12c | 776.67$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.86 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…94f1backed Yes | 9c | 600.21$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.59 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Yes | 14c | 531.23$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbce2…de8bbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x929f…9aa1backed Yes | 3c | 482.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 9c | 340.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 70 | 7.1%5 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa32f…28bcbacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…89f5backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +216.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 14c | 266.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 9c | 263.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…5d76backed Yes | 10c | 190.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x333d…e8b7backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -18.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…a39dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1d…0eacbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b05…cc22backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f3…c13cbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd97…b01ebacked No | 68c | 37.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in July?this page
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $62 in July?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $44 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $46 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.