Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x801b9c7f6f167efd3966d9a8742bd33c7f3f36e5d75602c7af0e99de100f5165
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,425
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,425 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 12c | 9,763$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.51 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…47e5backed No | 77c | 4,051$3,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.7 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbace…3429backed No | 71c | 2,785$1,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 2,535$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ee…5394backed Yes | 3c | 1,738$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 10c | 1,550$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.72 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes | 4c | 1,446$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 32c | 1,200$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 35c | 917.79$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.36 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 4c | 903.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…812cbacked No | 80c | 667$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.4 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c58…27eabacked Yes | 22c | 620.21$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 606$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 2c | 520$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +120.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 3c | 483.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda5…e16dbacked Yes | 5c | 464.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | +11.5wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 19c | 421.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.61 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 416$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.04 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 5c | 405.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 70 | 7.1%5 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf3…7344backed Yes | 32c | 390.84$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 22c | 384.69$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 378.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.67 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 29c | 372.05$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.64 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 352.6$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e98…e39abacked Yes | 5c | 351.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed Yes | 8c | 324.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 32c | 272.13$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 13c | 256.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…195bbacked Yes | 22c | 226.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb1…5a16backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…94f1backed Yes | 24c | 160.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26bb…03cfbacked Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 32c | 147.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 41c | 131$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb5…4d50backed Yes | 32c | 121.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 36c | 117$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked Yes | 32c | 112.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 305 | 43.6%133 W · 172 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3a…f5dbbacked Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x638d…4e6ebacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64c…ccf5backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe815…50bfbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cb…14a8backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…c66bbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 in July?this page
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $62 in July?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $44 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $46 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.