TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$98,137
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$105,373

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,137 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes12c23,402$2,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,906.3634534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes16c1,936$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.8530534.8%106 W · 199 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c1,841$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.961,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce83…5b97backed No77c1,717$1,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.952277.3%17 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes24c1,280$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.535334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x714d…c177backed Yes22c1,215$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.23616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid+66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed Yes17c959.06$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.261,27724.3%310 W · 967 L-58.2wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes22c955.13$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.631838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes16c916.28$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.944634.8%16 W · 30 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes27c769.88$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.293228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-42%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec4d…be21backed Yes16c700.09$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.01714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-72.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes3c700$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes6c666.35$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.241035.8%6 W · 97 L+0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9afc…314bbacked Yes3c657.45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7230%0 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No36c620.16$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.5514031.4%44 W · 96 L-0.6wins0.00per pick32cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes22c618.11$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.1414429.9%43 W · 101 L-10.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfdd…e70ebacked Yes31c616.81$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.21728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7df8…8e9dbacked Yes20c601.2$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.46520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Yes13c600$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+233.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes29c598.53$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.514820.8%10 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64e4…f459backed Yes37c507$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.49616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-58.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes3c482.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.152221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbce2…de8bbacked Yes15c463.07$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x270b…e632backed Yes12c447.2$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.334020%8 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x403f…94f1backed Yes17c435.6$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4520443.6%89 W · 115 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x929f…9aa1backed Yes6c361.61$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2850%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb307…9c25backed Yes27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814425%11 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-30.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4450…086cbacked No80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501675%12 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick73cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.861330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f3…844ebacked Yes15c232.55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8830738.8%119 W · 188 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+14.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf56…50e7backed No79c221.68$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.59988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick67cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f84…b4c4backed Yes6c210$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.362751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ef…812cbacked No76c201$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.355143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1924…dff3backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2f3…c13cbacked Yes31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36f4…7518backed No78c192.31$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.313100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed No80c170.56$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.11580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick75cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa32f…28bcbacked Yes13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+29.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed Yes13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010743%46 W · 61 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5154…a301backed Yes18c150$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.48955.1%49 W · 40 L+13.2wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+47.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x941b…e827backed Yes7c150$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes21c140.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8918540.5%75 W · 110 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes20c140.72$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6323323.6%55 W · 178 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes9c124$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4816050.6%81 W · 79 L+13.7wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes23c123.76$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.876653%35 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No78c120.72$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5612126.4%32 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes17c110.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6411929.4%35 W · 84 L-18.7wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-47.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xb107…f966backed Yes23c101.49$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8d8…31f1backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+101.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313218.8%6 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid+167.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211540%6 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-38.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c8a…5d15backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.51330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes32c99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6811133.3%37 W · 74 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x126e…c360backed Yes21c81.81$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.135438.9%21 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ed…7ee9backed Yes32c77.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.152737%10 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x452f…a0abbacked No78c74.76$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-57%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x660c…7f7abacked No76c65.88$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes16c65.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6819535.4%69 W · 126 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14d5…8ba8backed No78c64.84$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.551540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd895…ad02backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.829747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes21c55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.553414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-57.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3339…f1b3backed Yes33c52.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb431…82ecbacked No71c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.753043.3%13 W · 17 L-5.2wins-0.17per pick61cpaid-34.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf6da…3699backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+86.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.57763.6%49 W · 28 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf7d…6e93backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed Yes36c49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.646155.7%34 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x008d…6958backed No80c46$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No74c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.47857.7%45 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c37.68$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.11,04834.5%362 W · 686 L-94.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9ef3…01cabacked Yes33c36.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ccf…cd14backed No78c31.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.991050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed Yes36c31.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.293655.6%20 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d2e…f022backed No73c27.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41225%3 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-64%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8110…fd53backed No78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.64683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x490e…123abacked No74c24.75$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.46862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f97…6aafbacked No75c23.03$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.67785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick55cpaid+84.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb226…4163backed No78c21.53$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.743100%3 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7e9…b434backed No79c21.32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.56560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x987e…c3bdbacked No76c17.39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.141838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f6c…e2d8backed No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick80cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.