Commodities · resolved market
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe44ae4a2b20197080c08ae426fb4567a236cb7ef4eada72a0d7dfe1d4dfab410
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 18c | 7,171$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.6 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a2…c9b7backed No | 67c | 5,613$3,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,842.21 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 2,300$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.23 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…314bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,919$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72cb…5962backed Yes | 58c | 1,287$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.97 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda5…e16dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,232$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.46 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | +11.5wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Yes | 29c | 1,009$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.61 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 29c | 994.99$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.81 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 9c | 778.26$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.86 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed No | 67c | 565.87$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.74 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 56c | 507$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.3 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Yes | 31c | 466.54$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.14 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ef…812cbacked Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 387$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 22c | 373.55$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.63 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 9c | 346.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 70 | 7.1%5 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 6c | 274.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79de…e4bebacked Yes | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 5c | 245.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 233.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 10c | 226.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 50c | 205$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.65 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadb6…5875backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…94f1backed No | 72c | 195.05$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 186.14$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.44 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 20c | 173$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 153.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 28c | 145.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ee…5394backed Yes | 12c | 141.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f4…a7c9backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…c35abacked Yes | 21c | 94.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 46c | 92.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…3d03backed No | 60c | 70.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 53.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ed…7ee9backed Yes | 31c | 43.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134e…d718backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00cd…c0aebacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 64c | 28.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…b9cdbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1f…8f78backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6384backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $66 in July?this page
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $62 in July?Yes won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $70 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $44 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $46 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $50 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in July?No won
- Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $56 in July?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.