Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $170-$175 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fc036f3afc385e540157f96c027855a23a0016203e8cb092c2dcc1f605600fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,875
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,875 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 38c | 502.37$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.99 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 23c | 444.39$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.91 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…2171backed Yes | 23c | 396.15$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 76c | 302.32$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ca…48a9backed Yes | 23c | 283$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 282 | 61%172 W · 110 L | +42.5wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 76c | 199.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…5958backed Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed No | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 112.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb23d…e7e3backed Yes | 24c | 108.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 76c | 92.52$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Yes | 31c | 78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed No | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes | 22c | 69.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 68.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63db…eca7backed No | 75c | 55.26$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b0…38c4backed No | 77c | 53.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…f00dbacked No | 77c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 39.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…2e44backed Yes | 46c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32c4…d7ecbacked No | 80c | 36.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 348 | 39.1%136 W · 212 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 75c | 29.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 75c | 20.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 75c | 18.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 164 | 26.8%44 W · 120 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 69c | 17.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $170-$175 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $155-$160 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $160-$165 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $165-$170 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $175-$180 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $180-$185 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185-$190 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190-$195 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $195-$200 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.