Stocks · resolved market
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 23 above $90?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b0641cb9c3538d0ed525c18cd9abb24def2150e02f6fcf19e19aaee285e7754
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,740
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,740 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 13c | 26,075$3,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,419.96 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,045$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,997.14 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…a53ebacked No | 44c | 1,429$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.76 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 66c | 1,419$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.84 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 37c | 1,230$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.13 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 64c | 816.93$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.65 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 62c | 703.05$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.82 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed Yes | 79c | 538.58$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.2 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 24c | 500.86$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad8…6be0backed No | 45c | 439.13$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.66 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 39c | 420.66$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.26 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Yes | 72c | 291.81$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 16c | 260.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +88.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe754…19f4backed Yes | 61c | 249$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…0e4cbacked No | 42c | 244.28$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.78 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 27c | 230.55$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa51d…b897backed Yes | 68c | 155$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 28c | 72.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 63c | 47.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 37c | 35.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21e…a904backed Yes | 73c | 27.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed Yes | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 51c | 21.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.