Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fe8b4b759767560042e24c382fb7fc9be3da3235298edd0065ece2888659184
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,757
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 756.38$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 47c | 616.33$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.74 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 56c | 612.24$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.36 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 53c | 496.63$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.08 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 447.17$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.03 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 27c | 442.8$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.57 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 39c | 435.06$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.22 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 33c | 428.62$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.73 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7f…cc08backed Yes | 46c | 323.09$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 15c | 298.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 298.11$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 14c | 293$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 61c | 258.27$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.57 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 20c | 255.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 39c | 252.71$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.48 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 36c | 244$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…a5b7backed No | 23c | 227.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 41c | 200$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.17 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 7c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 177.47$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.68 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 49c | 174$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.53 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 53c | 171.92$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.29 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 68c | 161.22$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 52c | 150.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 12c | 143.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 68c | 140.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.97 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked No | 16c | 139.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 36c | 137.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.76 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 137.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 57c | 134$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.24 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf0…6444backed No | 16c | 131.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0276…f597backed No | 62c | 128.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes | 53c | 126.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 71c | 123.24$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 122.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.14 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf2…6599backed Yes | 46c | 116.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 44c | 112.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.78 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed No | 66c | 110$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.49 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 46c | 109.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…cd73backed Yes | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed No | 14c | 107.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 76c | 104.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed No | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed No | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18fe…b5f0backed No | 50c | 94.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 49c | 94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 54c | 93.81$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 91.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 50c | 83.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 46c | 79.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 21c | 79.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbf08…d5a4backed Yes | 33c | 79.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 55c | 74.29$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 72.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 44c | 72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…589ebacked No | 51c | 71.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…b7d3backed No | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 21c | 69.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 59c | 68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 25c | 61.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 51c | 58.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa39f…a15bbacked Yes | 51c | 58.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 56.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Yes | 49c | 54.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 51c | 54.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 55c | 53.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 44c | 52.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 28c | 52.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1a9bbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 45c | 49.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 35c | 49.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…52adbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 40c | 42.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 39c | 41.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 41.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 40.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…ed5bbacked Yes | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 69c | 38.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 40c | 38.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 60c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 61c | 35.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 53c | 33.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd782…a950backed Yes | 49c | 33.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 49c | 33.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 32.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 37c | 31.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.