TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,541
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$28,757

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,541 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1cdd…e595backed No13c756.38$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.827,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x24ed…8a18backed Yes47c616.33$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.7418732.1%60 W · 127 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x437f…5b95backed Yes56c612.24$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.3612536.8%46 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd661…2750backed No53c496.63$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.0888028.9%254 W · 626 L-2.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No54c447.17$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.032,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No27c442.8$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.573,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe25c…7908backed No39c435.06$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.2222857.5%131 W · 97 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No33c428.62$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.7359923.5%141 W · 458 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d7f…cc08backed Yes46c323.09$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.761127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-40.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed No15c298.57$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6661820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No25c298.11$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.336,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No14c293$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.185,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36e1…eb43backed No61c258.27$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.5716552.1%86 W · 79 L-8.8wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No20c255.73$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.622,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0941…b254backed Yes39c252.71$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.4811935.3%42 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No36c244$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.665,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…a5b7backed No23c227.53$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.39425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-57%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes41c200$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.1732132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4f0…6450backed No7c199.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1514119.1%27 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes35c177.47$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.6810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No49c174$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.534,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes53c171.92$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.2945540%182 W · 273 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes68c161.22$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9823540.9%96 W · 139 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No52c150.36$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3911731.6%37 W · 80 L-19.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x8d09…143fbacked No12c143.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7328829.5%85 W · 203 L+32.9wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+101.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No68c140.33$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.971,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked No16c139.22$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.771,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e16…27c0backed Yes36c137.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7629748.5%144 W · 153 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No14c137.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.362,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No57c134$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.241,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf0…6444backed No16c131.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9860%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0276…f597backed No62c128.96$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.9620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e33…bf4dbacked Yes53c126.42$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.45944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes71c123.24$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.565,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No56c122.08$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.143,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadf2…6599backed Yes46c116.28$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.711233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3910…ba74backed Yes44c112.11$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7817231.4%54 W · 118 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc7b…7a75backed No66c110$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.4927129.2%79 W · 192 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes46c109.81$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.811936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x767c…cd73backed Yes37c108.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.11955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+43.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1184…a836backed No14c107.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152917.2%5 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid+27.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1cc…6171backed Yes76c104.66$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6737942.5%161 W · 218 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.251,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5398738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd7f3…52d8backed No59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5919071.6%136 W · 54 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed No54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545450%27 W · 27 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed No52c99.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34d5…a977backed No54c99.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9923030.9%71 W · 159 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18fe…b5f0backed No50c94.8$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.430%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes49c94$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0433535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No54c93.81$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.644,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c91.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No50c83.02$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.551,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f25…bee4backed Yes46c79.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.999341.9%39 W · 54 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No21c79.7$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xbf08…d5a4backed Yes33c79.31$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.91861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+39.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes48c75$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3960739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed29…3024backed No55c74.29$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8624139.8%96 W · 145 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c72.74$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.559,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No44c72$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.441,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x084c…589ebacked No51c71.3$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.182133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e4f…b7d3backed No57c70$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.93141.9%13 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No21c69.21$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.541,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes59c68$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5649547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked No25c61.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes48c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.293,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes51c58.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.78725.3%22 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa39f…a15bbacked Yes51c58.52$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No54c56.05$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.414,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f5…57e2backed Yes49c54.67$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.881844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid+13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes51c54.09$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3320546.8%96 W · 109 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x63a1…0212backed No55c53.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8425258.7%148 W · 104 L-0.8wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes44c52.31$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.291,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No28c52.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.42,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes43c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.54235.7%15 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9144646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xecc6…b97abacked Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2717536.6%64 W · 111 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+31.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd2e…0873backed No52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2480…1a9bbacked Yes41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.52835.7%10 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd212…5182backed No53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.513551.1%69 W · 66 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab5e…47f6backed Yes43c49.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.55935.6%21 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes34c49.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No45c49.64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.448919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xcc8d…0939backed Yes35c49.3$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.955226.9%14 W · 38 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-37%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ead…52adbacked Yes44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.451546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes40c42.12$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2516045.6%73 W · 87 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No39c41.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5431219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No55c41.15$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.493,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No63c40.76$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.683,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc123…ed5bbacked Yes69c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.62512%3 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-81.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes69c38.37$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0123436.3%85 W · 149 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa09d…af80backed Yes40c38.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9821150.7%107 W · 104 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No60c36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6450373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No61c35.17$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.68,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No53c33.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.11,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd782…a950backed Yes49c33.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.172661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+23.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes49c33.59$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1337355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No73c32.16$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.352,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7615…308abacked No37c31.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9918441.3%76 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.