Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf893641b3da75d542e9816e3e50650ff9a57395826fd717e855bd5eec447ed5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 19c | 1,307$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.47 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 20c | 882.85$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.03 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 4c | 465.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 21c | 418.85$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 16c | 332.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 78c | 263.54$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 21c | 258.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 248.72$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 72c | 248.68$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 11c | 248.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 22c | 211.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 202.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 23c | 201.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 198.88$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 22c | 194.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 18c | 194$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf08…d5a4backed Yes | 27c | 183.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 166.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 159$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 18c | 158$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x604e…2cb1backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 31cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 20c | 146.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 145.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 145.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 17c | 142$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 76c | 139.66$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 74c | 136.83$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 79c | 136.16$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4386…59ddbacked Yes | 20c | 127.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 122.08$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 119.56$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…11f8backed Yes | 24c | 115.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 17c | 100.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a68…13f0backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 99.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864f…41acbacked Yes | 22c | 99.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 93.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 93.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 90.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 22c | 89.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 20c | 89.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 19c | 87.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 20c | 85.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 82.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 17c | 76.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 19c | 72.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 22c | 70.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…04a6backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 80c | 68.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 24c | 65.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed Yes | 21c | 58.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes | 22c | 58.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed No | 75c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 28c | 53.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 27c | 51.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dad…147cbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 36 | 77.8%28 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed No | 78c | 49.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 27c | 49.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…953fbacked Yes | 26c | 45.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 29c | 44.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 43.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…a457backed Yes | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 36.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed No | 79c | 34.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 33.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 33.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 79c | 30.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 27.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 76c | 26.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71a1…a26bbacked No | 76c | 25.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 78c | 23.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dde…a285backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad43…196bbacked No | 76c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 79c | 12.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.71 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.