Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41b3005e4756a22824318856b6c02c4a4ef7f28c7982d6f4ac7252e2c1fbe6af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Down | 47c | 5,904$2,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,767.66 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…3a6cbacked Up | 49c | 3,543$1,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,807.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 38c | 2,817$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.84 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Down | 5c | 2,086$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb09…738dbacked Down | 67c | 1,734$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 28c | 1,270$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.18 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 23c | 1,194$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.34 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 66c | 1,017$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.47 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60e…33d0backed Down | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb772…85c7backed Up | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4527…f137backed Up | 42c | 966.31$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +91%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Down | 2c | 899.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Up | 35c | 773.13$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.38 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…bac2backed Down | 28c | 732.35$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.88 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…9840backed Down | 7c | 569.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Down | 3c | 529.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad6e…9244backed Up | 40c | 512.22$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…4cebbacked Up | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Down | 30c | 453.52$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.09 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Down | 59c | 409.66$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.53 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4290…fd1abacked Up | 41c | 400$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Down | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…ca94backed Down | 54c | 385.28$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Down | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…1db9backed Up | 30c | 289.12$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.9 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Down | 50c | 284.23$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.11 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 37c | 271.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.42 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4901…cc02backed Up | 78c | 229.67$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Down | 68c | 220$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.6 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c98…2f96backed Down | 45c | 216.14$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…0f94backed Down | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Down | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b66…a95abacked Down | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d78…2650backed Down | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Down | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Down | 67c | 194.72$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…0787backed Down | 55c | 192.8$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Up | 42c | 147.72$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b6…3addbacked Up | 51c | 125.84$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…fe31backed Down | 48c | 112.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d47ebacked Up | 77c | 101.77$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Up | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7501…9edbbacked Up | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3249…fdd3backed Up | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Up | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8c…b2eebacked Up | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…debfbacked Down | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f1…ae89backed Down | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad0…f201backed Up | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…03afbacked Up | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…6713backed Down | 39c | 95.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed12…246abacked Down | 32c | 89.32$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…4ac4backed Up | 76c | 67.52$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd3…0cdfbacked Down | 66c | 65.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d64…94a4backed Down | 49c | 58.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…4cf7backed Up | 63c | 52.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Up | 49c | 38.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd491…86ccbacked Up | 36c | 37.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2f…6fe7backed Down | 49c | 37.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e8…b14fbacked Up | 52c | 36.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4747…52efbacked Down | 52c | 36.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf23…4c93backed Down | 62c | 35.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…50e4backed Down | 55c | 35.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f84…b4c4backed Up | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.