Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50aa2e6a0f0b59b624328ee1d1bcbb3bfe2ddb7488a02151579436a85a86c086
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $172,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 10,440$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.37 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 1c | 6,328$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…45d5backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 1c | 5,321$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 4,700$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 2,978$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.7 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed Yes | 1c | 2,857$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 39c | 2,705$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.85 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked Yes | 2c | 2,270$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 2,079$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…d680backed No | 70c | 1,965$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.23 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…df67backed Yes | 3c | 1,893$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,425$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…459cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,405$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,393$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.7 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 1c | 1,392$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 1c | 1,339$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 52c | 1,315$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.33 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…7341backed Yes | 4c | 1,295$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 29c | 1,286$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.76 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 1,279$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.08 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked No | 66c | 1,234$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.41 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 20c | 1,233$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.03 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…6768backed No | 77c | 1,137$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 1,132$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked Yes | 1c | 1,074$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,072$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.54 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 60c | 1,003$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.02 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 943.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…ba19backed No | 73c | 863.96$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.04 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 15c | 849.68$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.81 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 63c | 710$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.5 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 3c | 699.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf2…ca49backed No | 60c | 629.52$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.89 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…44ebbacked Yes | 2c | 620$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 33c | 616.38$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.46 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 581.11$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed Yes | 47c | 577.11$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.48 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 572.92$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…9325backed Yes | 37c | 563.99$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 4c | 562.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 3c | 550.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 537.8$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 519.88$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 49c | 472.71$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.4 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ea…8ed1backed Yes | 78c | 442.29$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.82 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 58c | 410$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.63 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 5c | 404.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 60c | 387.7$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.22 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 61c | 384.78$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.12 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 56c | 367.44$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.75 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 4c | 363.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 52c | 353.47$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.8 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 338$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…8fabbacked No | 65c | 333.51$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.52 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 48c | 330.78$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.16 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked No | 61c | 321.09$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.03 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 309.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 301.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 38c | 290.15$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.14 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 49c | 272.87$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.46 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…5941backed No | 39c | 269.86$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.46 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 37c | 264.81$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.44 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 264$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.9 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 13c | 262.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 37c | 257.02$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 250$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 240$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…1e8abacked No | 37c | 232.82$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.82 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +6.5wins | +0.34per pick | 34cpaid | +195.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…0c8abacked Yes | 33c | 232.09$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 47c | 210.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.96 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…8c9ebacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 15c | 187.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 43c | 183.92$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.92 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 30c | 183.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.17 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 10c | 183.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.28 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 25c | 180.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 54c | 174.77$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.59 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 170$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 166.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 165$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 15c | 164.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 73c | 161.45$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 47c | 156.07$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.24 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 153.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 64c | 153.47$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…b7d3backed No | 66c | 145.9$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 38c | 141.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.08 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 52c | 140.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 57c | 140$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 36c | 139.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 22c | 138.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.82 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 57c | 138$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 44c | 135.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf79…7130backed Yes | 48c | 131.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 75c | 130$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 129.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 28c | 126.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24a4…d98cbacked No | 79c | 125.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.98 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.