Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa8cf6ee2bf8132580c44ffeb89e854a24abf7ade8d583ecb92cbc494d24108c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 17c | 1,935$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.88 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 19c | 1,090$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.06 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 18c | 865.15$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.49 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 20c | 730.85$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.7 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 511.65$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.59 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 27c | 414.27$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.46 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf79…7130backed Yes | 25c | 395.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 78c | 316.63$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 10c | 305.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed Yes | 14c | 299.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 284.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 8c | 284.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 80c | 271.03$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.01 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 252.75$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 234.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 14c | 202.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 184.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed No | 73c | 181.73$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 174.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 20c | 170$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 159.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 13c | 147.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 18c | 134$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 78c | 131.47$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 8c | 130.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 12c | 128.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Yes | 28c | 127.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 21c | 124.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fb…de76backed Yes | 11c | 123.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 80c | 118.44$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 9c | 111.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 30c | 104$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 73c | 104$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c70…1d71backed Yes | 11c | 103$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 100.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdb67…e28bbacked No | 80c | 100.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 95.44$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 16c | 87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 25c | 73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 18c | 69.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 24c | 57.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 55.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 79c | 39.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb923…cc8ebacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 22.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…c78fbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 70c | 18.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 76c | 16.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.