Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3196e8274977f48c4b3232f51719ded87d191d93940c0d3615818f7fc0d08309
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d9…fc14backed No | 0c | 4,384$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 2c | 2,835$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.71 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 43c | 1,937$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.45 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 1c | 1,397$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 38c | 1,094$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.71 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,042$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.51 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 964$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.71 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 54c | 834.84$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.23 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 676.71$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 18c | 662.64$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.04 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 606.45$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 21c | 577.41$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.66 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 30c | 537.8$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.69 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 63c | 472.46$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.73 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 54c | 433.73$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.29 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 78c | 425.83$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.54 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 53c | 405.95$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.87 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 383$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.95 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed Yes | 27c | 382.51$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.63 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 331.15$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.85 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 54c | 326.31$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.27 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 45c | 315.37$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.71 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 55c | 312.33$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.37 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 66c | 310.34$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.74 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 31c | 300$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 55c | 290.11$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 69c | 274.28$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.25 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 38c | 260.91$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.41 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 28c | 257.26$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.52 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 8c | 248.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 78c | 217.76$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 19c | 191.6$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.47 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf79…7130backed Yes | 51c | 190.8$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 27c | 189.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 62c | 184.77$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.52 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 62c | 182.92$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 21c | 170.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.8 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 34c | 169.09$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.91 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 16c | 165.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.35 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 160$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.95 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 34c | 153.47$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 35c | 152.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.41 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 146.45$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.83 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 69c | 143.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 76c | 142.13$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 136.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.83 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 39c | 122.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 118.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 115.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 115$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 20c | 115$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…5941backed Yes | 17c | 112.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.35 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 63c | 110.71$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 45c | 110$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed Yes | 19c | 105.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.53 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 42c | 102.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.18 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…3824backed Yes | 24c | 102.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…1e8abacked Yes | 15c | 102.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.01 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +6.5wins | +0.34per pick | 34cpaid | +195.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…3804backed Yes | 17c | 99.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 73c | 99.79$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 37c | 96.32$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb673…b674backed No | 73c | 95.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.74 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 56c | 94.22$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 63c | 92.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 48c | 88.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde01…a938backed No | 73c | 86.42$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 22c | 85.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 31c | 84.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.26 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 17c | 83.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 65c | 79.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 79.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…9325backed Yes | 26c | 76.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 70.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 70.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2720…2920backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 19c | 64.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ec…31b6backed Yes | 23c | 64.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 19c | 64.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…d541backed Yes | 19c | 63.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 62.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 26c | 61.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…8809backed Yes | 24c | 60.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 18c | 59.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 36c | 57.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 22c | 57.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 25c | 54.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 28c | 51.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 26c | 51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.