Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93792593164bc1c147db4c69f160898d2de57ca1ee962b854be4c77a1a782b30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 74c | 731.2$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.05 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Up | 43c | 495.91$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.32 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a9…516abacked Up | 56c | 384.23$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed Down | 49c | 306.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.54 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Up | 47c | 302.77$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.63 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Up | 26c | 282.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.38 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Down | 58c | 177$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.34 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Up | 44c | 175.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.75 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…d993backed Up | 45c | 160.43$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe423…2492backed Up | 50c | 136.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…a81dbacked Down | 62c | 106.66$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 82 | 62.2%51 W · 31 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 47c | 106$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 1,051 | 34.7%365 W · 686 L | -93.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked Up | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -10.8wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x49f4…a7c9backed Up | 51c | 96.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da9…d940backed Up | 39c | 79.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb82e…5278backed Up | 23c | 77.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed Down | 66c | 73.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Up | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c1…90c7backed Up | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…4636backed Down | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed Down | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…4193backed Down | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ab…3a5abacked Down | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e5…71e3backed Up | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff14…c6cabacked Up | 42c | 43.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x002a…8d89backed Up | 44c | 38.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a7…64fabacked Down | 63c | 30.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…a7dbbacked Up | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc4…a340backed Down | 61c | 24.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Up | 49c | 21.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.