Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0b2db4f94ce5b8bf0f25a33be5e52563a1a45ece4c763fc10ec8eb9c5e2b6a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Down | 0c | 23,002$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 11c | 14,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.98 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 60c | 4,642$2,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,853.25 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb59…83f9backed Down | 45c | 4,107$1,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,868.39 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…147abacked Down | 9c | 4,007$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.79 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 31c | 1,883$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.53 | 152 | 21.7%33 W · 119 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb08…ee59backed Down | 46c | 1,326$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Up | 54c | 1,133$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.44 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Down | 3c | 1,031$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc1…692ebacked Down | 43c | 982.52$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…bac2backed Up | 71c | 948.35$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.88 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc636…a645backed Up | 53c | 862$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…e501backed Down | 43c | 791.44$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed Down | 31c | 710.62$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad6e…9244backed Up | 58c | 564.26$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Down | 43c | 544.82$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.84 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde6a…f458backed Down | 5c | 517.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5341…92d6backed Down | 11c | 493.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde18…f57cbacked Down | 8c | 466.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d64…94a4backed Down | 46c | 416$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad3…884bbacked Up | 54c | 402.17$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x131c…6816backed Down | 48c | 394.32$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.39 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd3…0cdfbacked Down | 45c | 392.41$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…3c56backed Down | 21c | 387.62$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Up | 55c | 368.15$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.67 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Down | 47c | 360$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…006cbacked Down | 38c | 353.92$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f0…dc45backed Down | 46c | 347.79$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00bd…25bfbacked Down | 16c | 344.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac1…ecfabacked Down | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc5…4626backed Down | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c3…dbacbacked Down | 39c | 237.29$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaaeb…c969backed Up | 66c | 221.41$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf76a…b506backed Up | 60c | 210.06$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…0ab4backed Down | 41c | 205.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Down | 10c | 200.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…d52dbacked Down | 30c | 200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86f6…9384backed Down | 42c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…1db9backed Down | 38c | 200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccbb…1cd2backed Up | 52c | 181.25$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed Up | 53c | 173.25$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.29 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb549…c2b6backed Down | 48c | 159.73$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Up | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Up | 55c | 121.27$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfd…23bdbacked Down | 35c | 113.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2a…debfbacked Up | 59c | 110.93$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed Down | 43c | 110$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664f…d100backed Down | 35c | 108.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…ce42backed Up | 56c | 105$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…d993backed Up | 51c | 103.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af3…fbe5backed Down | 46c | 100.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…4a9abacked Up | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Up | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +289%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6349…6713backed Down | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…4cebbacked Down | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa614…7d4cbacked Down | 44c | 98.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +117.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3e…2b90backed Down | 47c | 63.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Down | 45c | 63.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Down | 36c | 59.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 121 | 26.4%32 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…17ddbacked Up | 59c | 57.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 40cpaid | +40%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed12…246abacked Up | 73c | 57.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Up | 55c | 42.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3608…805abacked Down | 48c | 39.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee0…8b28backed Down | 41c | 32.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e6…cc89backed Down | 48c | 29.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f93…242bbacked Up | 55c | 29.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77e8…b14fbacked Up | 52c | 27.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f1…705abacked Down | 42c | 27.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccb2…897dbacked Down | 46c | 23.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Up | 51c | 23.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.