Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ba33f726b0c339575b1fde1317d6fac064e6cc3fe611bee511adcdf3c218a08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $281,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $273,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $281,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe157…51ebbacked Yes | 0c | 42,122$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 29,281$7,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,914.53 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…96babacked Yes | 0c | 20,058$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 8c | 15,423$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.06 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 1c | 13,000$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.34 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 68c | 9,500$6,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,995.62 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 8c | 5,371$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.56 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e5…e6adbacked Yes | 0c | 5,331$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…41c6backed Yes | 4c | 5,088$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…56c9backed Yes | 12c | 4,066$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,850$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.98 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ec…d630backed Yes | 4c | 3,716$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.32 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -76%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 3,652$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed No | 74c | 3,478$2,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.37 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…149bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,958$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae5…40e1backed Yes | 2c | 1,880$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…057cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,731$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 25c | 1,507$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.35 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…8d6ebacked No | 78c | 1,500$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e15…b101backed Yes | 13c | 1,361$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.74 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,298$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa247…7175backed Yes | 39c | 1,215$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c15…cc6bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,100$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e98…e39abacked Yes | 5c | 1,072$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…c7aebacked Yes | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x822b…decabacked No | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 907.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes | 2c | 854.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes | 14c | 724.29$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 70 | 18.6%13 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd800…c256backed Yes | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa120…3e5ebacked No | 78c | 460$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes | 15c | 368.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 333.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…de7fbacked No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…21c3backed Yes | 11c | 218.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…0d63backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4700…41cebacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e51…879abacked Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked No | 63c | 160.81$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7850…6c18backed Yes | 40c | 155.67$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -5.4wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x880a…308ebacked No | 78c | 144$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…fe22backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…fb5ebacked Yes | 24c | 105.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…618dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -55%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a1…3201backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…da0cbacked No | 77c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…4ac4backed No | 62c | 85.72$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…ab1bbacked Yes | 13c | 85.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 60c | 82.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | -19.5wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xde1a…77b3backed No | 79c | 81.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 20c | 55.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x202b…5a7dbacked No | 69c | 24.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…9b71backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in July?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $700 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $900 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,700 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.