Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42311c027449240955218f8aa9b9a997e2ec6738e7917a41457abe449d33ef56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 43c | 6,454$2,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,658.86 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed No | 54c | 6,237$3,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,385.98 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…0ac6backed Yes | 75c | 4,018$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.63 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa18c…d792backed No | 49c | 3,490$1,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,706.78 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c9…9c10backed No | 25c | 2,896$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.28 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…fe61backed Yes | 73c | 1,681$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.18 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x880a…308ebacked No | 8c | 1,579$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.63 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 1,363$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed No | 3c | 1,288$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x841d…6ef3backed Yes | 48c | 950$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5939…4d07backed No | 17c | 897.58$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x822b…decabacked No | 55c | 890$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.3 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…01b7backed No | 32c | 875.62$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.2 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 80c | 590.71$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.76 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked No | 20c | 560.96$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.59 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf92…5e5bbacked No | 11c | 557.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe38b…8996backed No | 31c | 550.13$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.32 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…fa96backed No | 9c | 532.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8d…458abacked No | 4c | 472$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 77c | 464.62$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.62 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1443…40f0backed No | 13c | 419.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc965…91bfbacked No | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0295backed No | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x940c…61bebacked Yes | 76c | 169.56$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 70c | 144.23$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…d78ebacked No | 14c | 106.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…1613backed Yes | 74c | 102.7$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc7…3976backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ce…2fa6backed No | 47c | 92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…5d20backed No | 13c | 88.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…52c2backed Yes | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…6bbfbacked Yes | 45c | 84.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x801c…7022backed No | 49c | 72.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe339…e01bbacked No | 16c | 70.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0b…0ae7backed No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfcb…0383backed Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…ae19backed Yes | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe834…72a4backed No | 20c | 52.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfd…638dbacked No | 35c | 48.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 77c | 47.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa89c…143dbacked No | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…4f8abacked Yes | 79c | 43.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fb…2163backed Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…7986backed Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…6689backed Yes | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54e…9598backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…66a6backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe76b…ad7fbacked Yes | 65c | 24.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f86…7463backed Yes | 69c | 20.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dd…0828backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x532c…ca3cbacked Yes | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $700 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $900 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,700 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.