Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51997416b691287fa8889118c25e458800231a9c0badac256bb7b02fa47e3543
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $291,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $296,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $291,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes | 9c | 20,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…7e2ebacked Yes | 3c | 19,997$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 10,597$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 74 | 0%0 W · 74 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3592…c68cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…21a0backed Yes | 2c | 9,613$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.69 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ec…d630backed Yes | 2c | 8,766$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.23 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -76%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…56c9backed Yes | 4c | 8,766$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.99 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab7…d144backed Yes | 3c | 6,995$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.03 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…3113backed Yes | 2c | 5,941$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.37 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 2c | 4,964$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,315$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.45 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8a…a9fbbacked Yes | 1c | 4,197$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 1c | 2,902$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 3c | 2,129$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,737$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes | 1c | 1,600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…ba83backed Yes | 3c | 1,338$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d8…ce04backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,090$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 954.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…5580backed Yes | 2c | 800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 2c | 771$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3631…4964backed Yes | 3c | 714.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 10c | 291.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7850…6c18backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -5.4wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in July?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $700 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $900 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,700 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.