Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2930e0845c297a0fceead63fb2751cd63d028a4834da0b901e2a943f5f8d3fdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7919…72b2backed Yes | 73c | 5,215$3,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,413.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9957…daecbacked No | 33c | 4,746$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,548.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +114.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ee…932cbacked Yes | 72c | 3,019$2,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed No | 19c | 3,001$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.42 | 71 | 12.7%9 W · 62 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe4…01b7backed No | 26c | 2,348$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.89 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e15…b101backed No | 22c | 2,021$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.3 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…d127backed No | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…05b2backed Yes | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 76cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 26c | 1,233$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.01 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaac…c198backed Yes | 76c | 1,080$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.7 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd800…c256backed No | 20c | 580$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5534…1064backed No | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked No | 17c | 416.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3af…84fcbacked No | 17c | 362.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 9c | 348$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd490…a6d7backed No | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…7873backed Yes | 69c | 293.75$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.75 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed No | 6c | 206.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…c85ebacked Yes | 80c | 168.31$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd032…5136backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ec…d630backed No | 22c | 149.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -76%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059e…4a2ebacked Yes | 75c | 132.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b06…d33fbacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked Yes | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +94%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…732cbacked No | 17c | 87.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked No | 23c | 83.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa644…e875backed Yes | 77c | 65.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 26c | 62.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | -19.5wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…8ba8backed No | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…b075backed Yes | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6be…1758backed Yes | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked Yes | 79c | 40.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 77c | 35.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff1…4d1fbacked Yes | 73c | 27.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7b…0f76backed Yes | 75c | 24.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $700 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $900 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,700 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.