Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaaa9bfb1d760d6b1ff56a74658ce00603951614bfc88a766e2e73c7616b18a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $481,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $384,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $481,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 5c | 63,732$3,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,443.43 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 7c | 43,211$3,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,082.33 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 6c | 40,537$2,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,429.16 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2723…8d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 25,363$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890.46 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 0c | 18,970$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 11,834$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.68 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 4c | 8,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.44 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1234…c1bbbacked Yes | 3c | 6,706$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 7c | 6,179$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.64 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -95%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…2b7bbacked Yes | 3c | 6,131$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac9…ca59backed Yes | 6c | 6,024$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.56 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 3c | 6,000$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes | 9c | 5,535$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.03 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce98…1b49backed Yes | 2c | 5,009$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 10c | 4,952$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.52 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b59…58e6backed Yes | 5c | 4,467$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.23 | 100 | 1%1 W · 99 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37cd…7b7ebacked Yes | 6c | 4,421$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.92 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ec…d630backed Yes | 3c | 4,381$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.32 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -76%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…73a5backed Yes | 5c | 4,141$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,965$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,820$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.56 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 2c | 3,500$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x262a…2188backed Yes | 1c | 3,499$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 3,335$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.28 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…3113backed Yes | 6c | 3,187$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.43 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,185$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ff…515dbacked Yes | 9c | 3,113$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 9c | 2,840$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.6 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 3c | 2,679$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ef…3116backed Yes | 4c | 2,623$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.58 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 2,391$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b7…d7b9backed Yes | 0c | 2,336$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea5…8f4cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed Yes | 3c | 1,800$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55f3…cadabacked Yes | 2c | 1,690$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,578$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaec…e6f6backed Yes | 12c | 1,177$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +130.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,093$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed Yes | 7c | 1,042$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb76f…970cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,032$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.71 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…94b6backed Yes | 7c | 800$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x121d…832abacked Yes | 7c | 713.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1154…ad9cbacked Yes | 7c | 691.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83f0…6ff5backed Yes | 7c | 677.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0a…2765backed Yes | 8c | 617.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Yes | 5c | 606.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…fa2ebacked Yes | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 9c | 560.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…c85ebacked Yes | 8c | 558.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…eec2backed Yes | 2c | 510$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…855fbacked Yes | 7c | 454.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 3c | 436.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8d…a7e9backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a6…7442backed Yes | 10c | 396.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf756…3a81backed Yes | 11c | 360.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf17f…b558backed Yes | 12c | 325.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 9c | 311.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda42…dc4fbacked Yes | 5c | 308.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…cce7backed Yes | 6c | 304$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…13f7backed Yes | 4c | 278.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +464.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fec…9818backed Yes | 18c | 270.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 261.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a5…eb20backed Yes | 5c | 237.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e51…879abacked Yes | 7c | 235$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fff…4b55backed Yes | 6c | 230$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x669a…e265backed Yes | 13c | 225.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…e0ccbacked Yes | 12c | 215.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…21c3backed Yes | 6c | 215.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…35c7backed Yes | 7c | 211.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ca…9265backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052a…d30cbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…9508backed Yes | 6c | 188.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +374.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Yes | 8c | 170.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e15…b101backed Yes | 8c | 168.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f49…f026backed Yes | 17c | 149.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…ae46backed Yes | 9c | 130.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…417dbacked Yes | 10c | 129.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…fb8cbacked Yes | 17c | 87.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in July?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $700 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $900 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,700 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.