Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x916d89e4ba22568763dd153531efd685a1d465ad157339e0ffc81dbb6885ca61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $349,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $284,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $349,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 4c | 34,583$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.84 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2723…8d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 24,460$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.61 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 4c | 22,693$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.83 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1234…c1bbbacked Yes | 1c | 18,087$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 4c | 14,183$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.98 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +8.3wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +273.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x049b…5a12backed Yes | 4c | 11,059$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.96 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +403.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b7…5ee3backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…52c4backed Yes | 6c | 10,000$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.11 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 4cpaid | +842%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,000$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3521…b046backed Yes | 1c | 7,327$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.58 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,436$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,399$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab7…d144backed Yes | 5c | 5,077$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.6 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 4,899$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.58 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…9d54backed Yes | 2c | 4,476$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b59…58e6backed Yes | 4c | 3,510$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 100 | 1%1 W · 99 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea5…8f4cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,480$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.43 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ef…3116backed Yes | 3c | 3,470$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.61 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,745$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ca…0892backed Yes | 2c | 2,705$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,281$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37cd…7b7ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,095$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.94 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…2b7bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,991$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ad…ff65backed Yes | 6c | 1,889$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd05e…0c97backed Yes | 1c | 1,548$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1154…ad9cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,392$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,250$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…d292backed Yes | 9c | 1,112$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 3c | 1,011$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4a…7bd0backed Yes | 1c | 982.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb76f…970cbacked Yes | 3c | 760.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9330…393dbacked Yes | 7c | 758.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes | 4c | 659.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0a…2765backed Yes | 5c | 570.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0312…96b2backed Yes | 9c | 548.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fec…9818backed Yes | 9c | 539.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9b5ebacked Yes | 9c | 537.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6f…be20backed Yes | 5c | 480.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -79%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe10f…c750backed Yes | 3c | 446.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…cce7backed Yes | 4c | 419.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49e2…3007backed Yes | 3c | 348.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf40d…4f39backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f49…f026backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…14d7backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…2ee8backed Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in July?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum dip to $700 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $800 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $900 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,700 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 in July?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in July?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in July?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.