Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b86306455934e3b8a0b043b9da67520d7beab7c893adb28a314e8921186b267
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,672$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.3 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…9461backed Yes | 24c | 1,738$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.28 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 14c | 677.32$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 15c | 508.17$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 478.68$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.68 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 73c | 406$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.58 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 76c | 389.98$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 374.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 352.7$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 73c | 332.53$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.77 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9047…2959backed Yes | 13c | 314.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 24c | 305.17$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.79 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 74c | 268.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 14c | 261.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 23c | 254.18$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 16c | 237.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 79c | 220$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 68c | 211.78$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 197.75$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 179.51$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 152.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 150$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…522bbacked Yes | 15c | 149.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 178 | 31.5%56 W · 122 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 141.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 22c | 136.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 19c | 131.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 19c | 130.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c41…500dbacked Yes | 17c | 127.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked No | 80c | 120.35$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 21c | 113.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a18…d98cbacked No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 105.32$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 22c | 105.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x413b…86c0backed Yes | 19c | 104.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c8…0ed9backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa83c…a8f4backed No | 80c | 97.4$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 16c | 95.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 24c | 86.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 83$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 82.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…b083backed Yes | 19c | 82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 81.47$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…8c79backed No | 73c | 74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…325cbacked No | 70c | 71.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb0…cc8abacked Yes | 19c | 59.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x657c…0969backed Yes | 31c | 55.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 76c | 55.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked Yes | 28c | 53.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…524cbacked Yes | 26c | 53.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 21c | 52.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 64c | 45.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 40.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 74c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…a0b0backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 77c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 76c | 23.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 79c | 15.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 75c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.