Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2995273c08cbfd40f254866b86176d7d72da6c0a355d28393ae701f7b479152d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a12…d440backed Yes | 0c | 6,897$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 6c | 2,064$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.64 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 3c | 1,071$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc18…1341backed Yes | 10c | 991.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 4c | 727.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 668.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 4c | 582.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 535.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 2c | 509.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 2c | 495.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 2c | 481.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 449.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x337b…e32abacked Yes | 3c | 403.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 11c | 399.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 12c | 377.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked Yes | 5c | 374.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…bd3bbacked Yes | 7c | 350$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 6c | 333.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2417…02f5backed Yes | 9c | 317.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes | 12c | 312.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 5c | 309.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1c…7f60backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 7c | 279.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 10c | 270.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 7c | 229.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 9c | 223.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 16c | 219.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…3eb6backed Yes | 12c | 200.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…c14fbacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 11c | 175$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x947a…cd42backed Yes | 10c | 152.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 9c | 137.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 10c | 122.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 10c | 119.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed Yes | 26c | 113.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 17c | 113.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…372abacked Yes | 13c | 111.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 19c | 102.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…9461backed Yes | 22c | 90.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 79c | 69.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 17c | 67.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 74c | 30.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.