TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,028
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,121

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,028 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd8f8…0f11backed No4c733.17$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.696620.7%200 W · 766 L+59.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+96.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No16c730.54$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.754,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed Yes4c723.73$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.1316724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06a3…fa45backed Yes13c663.82$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.9215660.9%95 W · 61 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c57…372dbacked Yes34c608.92$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.371,53124.2%371 W · 1,160 L+15.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bb…ec4fbacked Yes35c608$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.572532%8 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No48c592$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.35,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fe5…4745backed Yes7c499.98$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.3318629.6%55 W · 131 L-15.3wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-22.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes67c467.03$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.556,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes14c417.09$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.41,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No56c414.3$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.936,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No18c383.6$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.21,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No4c376.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2963323.9%151 W · 482 L-20.0wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes11c354.19$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.368,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No10c352.86$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.562,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes12c337.06$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.618,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No20c336.22$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.662,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda33…daccbacked No6c320.4$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.225834.5%20 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes10c315.14$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.8110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes27c293.27$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.3122446.4%104 W · 120 L+31.1wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+35.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No15c284.1$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.472,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No54c283.8$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.895,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed Yes16c279.51$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.9122350.7%113 W · 110 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a3a…00b2backed Yes13c264$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.9814524.1%35 W · 110 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes27c261.49$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.672646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes69c260$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0936648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No40c236.88$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.951,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes7c212.5$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.841,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes15c210$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.4656627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes68c192.19$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.312,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes20c188.45$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.1212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x276d…ea8fbacked No64c187.58$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1208650%43 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No10c183.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0357044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed Yes29c173.29$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.5453951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes15c170.51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.1842820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes10c161.72$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.1348919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd702…2087backed No10c161.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.754052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes57c155.74$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.272,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No17c139.09$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.512,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes8c136.7$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.662,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes9c133$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.0394919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes8c131.84$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.292,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No30c125.71$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.362,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No46c121.41$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.557,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes9c115.16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.785,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No79c115$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2988650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc18…1341backed Yes9c114.15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.15520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+128.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No51c112.58$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.771,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6897…a4a4backed Yes11c110.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.5319217.2%33 W · 159 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed No13c107.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5542849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1024…831abacked Yes10c105.1$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1656.2%4 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed No77c100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0516552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No13c98.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8465353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes49c85.95$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.852,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes54c83.5$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.642,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes56c80.84$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.882,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd831…a71fbacked Yes14c76.68$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.94742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+80.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes71c74.92$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.572,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes14c74.53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8346549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed Yes25c74.32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5924751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xec25…dec6backed Yes68c72$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0811172.1%80 W · 31 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick65cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No51c71.54$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4380957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No17c70.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed No64c69.98$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.775158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed Yes42c69.76$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3711947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No59c69.7$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc848…537bbacked Yes68c63.5$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.27958.2%46 W · 33 L+0.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd647…afafbacked Yes44c60.4$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.86540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes70c54.14$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.082,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb4…4ea8backed Yes24c53.1$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.587562.7%47 W · 28 L+10.3wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+26.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No31c52.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.392,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe775…01d2backed Yes63c48.17$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.629646.9%45 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77f9…10d1backed Yes64c41.26$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.961250%6 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed Yes77c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0523668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed Yes38c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6638146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No34c39.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.353,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes36c39.19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1939346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed Yes78c38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.267158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No47c36.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.511,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb227…ef1ebacked No79c34.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.532470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2417…02f5backed Yes61c32.87$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a64…b0eabacked Yes64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.25560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe211…90d8backed No73c30.27$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes35c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5117831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e40…f89cbacked No50c29.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.924569.8%171 W · 74 L+30.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.6%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No38c27.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.489262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xdd84…0fe5backed No66c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4851568%350 W · 165 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.91,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65f7…ff15backed No59c24.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2226958.4%157 W · 112 L-16.9wins-0.06per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No73c23.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2242976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No47c22.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4399961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2439…f0dbbacked Yes54c21.87$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.96714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-73.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes73c21.51$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9140871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd615…ae32backed Yes49c20.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4333962.8%213 W · 126 L+40.8wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4d47…10b4backed No54c20.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0522344.8%100 W · 123 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x188a…9fafbacked No80c20.45$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3519662.2%122 W · 74 L+0.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x429c…5f41backed Yes53c20.41$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6110745.8%49 W · 58 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.