TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: ALKA vs BORRACHEIROS (BO3) - CCT South America Series 4 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ALKAof ALKA, BORRACHEIROS
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,375
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$109,699

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,375 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x82d2…beeabacked BORRACHEIROS36c2,923$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,042.881,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45e4…3c69backed BORRACHEIROS63c2,323$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,472.312035%7 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bf1…294fbacked ALKA49c2,133$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.7813642.6%58 W · 78 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10a0…217cbacked BORRACHEIROS1c2,042$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed BORRACHEIROS31c2,009$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.512,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed BORRACHEIROS30c1,945$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.311,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked ALKA63c1,901$1,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.441,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcece…ffeebacked ALKA64c1,533$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.6711844.1%52 W · 66 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked ALKA63c1,400$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.998047.5%38 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8412…55f3backed BORRACHEIROS34c1,384$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.732611.5%3 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-69.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5981…b68cbacked BORRACHEIROS51c1,360$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.5530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4cf…2224backed ALKA57c1,339$758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.1322567.1%151 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1056…3c9dbacked ALKA48c1,181$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.088336.1%30 W · 53 L-8.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-31.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked BORRACHEIROS37c1,076$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.0752636.5%192 W · 334 L+18.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed ALKA64c1,055$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.831,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed ALKA50c1,014$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.6427037.8%102 W · 168 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed BORRACHEIROS53c936.99$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.8417759.9%106 W · 71 L+0.4wins0.00per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked ALKA61c923.26$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.723,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed BORRACHEIROS37c836.5$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.511,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed ALKA73c821.9$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.9113253.8%71 W · 61 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed BORRACHEIROS49c814.78$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.9362248.2%300 W · 322 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed BORRACHEIROS37c812.34$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.2122750.2%114 W · 113 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ALKA60c807.76$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.765,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c71…c0e5backed BORRACHEIROS40c740.68$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.1736446.7%170 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed BORRACHEIROS38c665$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2561717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaf2…dfa9backed BORRACHEIROS39c635.71$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed ALKA55c601.77$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.351,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked BORRACHEIROS44c598.54$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.491,84841.7%770 W · 1,078 L-69.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed ALKA65c595.72$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.443544.6%194 W · 241 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked BORRACHEIROS34c582.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20058149.2%286 W · 295 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked BORRACHEIROS43c554$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.893,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e48…6158backed BORRACHEIROS38c519.45$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.3938052.6%200 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed BORRACHEIROS63c500$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.552150.3%262 W · 259 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c8c…2d81backed ALKA65c494$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.2545748.1%220 W · 237 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4377…74c2backed BORRACHEIROS50c462.76$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.835527.3%15 W · 40 L-10.6wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-44.2%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x635d…7047backed ALKA56c444.5$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1975747.4%27 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked ALKA63c429.04$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.7419351.3%99 W · 94 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed ALKA63c425.87$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.5755039.6%218 W · 332 L-20.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked ALKA53c420$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.0166446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d4…2f1ebacked BORRACHEIROS49c420$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.229156.7%165 W · 126 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3783…171dbacked ALKA55c400.36$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.7424562%152 W · 93 L+21.9wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e5a…96bcbacked ALKA59c390$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.915246.1%70 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked BORRACHEIROS39c386.49$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.212,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed ALKA61c375.94$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.362,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbe59…0d2ebacked BORRACHEIROS37c370$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.958343.6%254 W · 329 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed ALKA73c352.08$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.061566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed ALKA52c347.71$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.4717644.9%79 W · 97 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0328…bd17backed BORRACHEIROS59c338.35$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.863063.3%19 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked ALKA60c331.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.6981751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0af3…9cb5backed ALKA63c316.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.245860.3%35 W · 23 L+8.6wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+25.7%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xad84…1897backed ALKA61c311.98$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.5319443.3%84 W · 110 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc444…416cbacked BORRACHEIROS35c303.45$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.6614454.9%79 W · 65 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3b0…b4d1backed BORRACHEIROS37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11126650.8%135 W · 131 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked ALKA63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11113354.9%73 W · 60 L+10.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x33d3…bf38backed BORRACHEIROS48c298$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.0410560%63 W · 42 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0844…bf81backed ALKA69c289.86$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.8635148.1%169 W · 182 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked ALKA72c276.25$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.259561.1%58 W · 37 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b2…9ac1backed BORRACHEIROS29c269.37$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3421137.4%79 W · 132 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked ALKA64c269.3$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.61,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed ALKA71c254.91$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9241475.4%312 W · 102 L+22.1wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked ALKA51c253.28$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.1138844.3%172 W · 216 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed BORRACHEIROS53c253$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.971,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1967…30b5backed ALKA57c250$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.529246.9%137 W · 155 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed ALKA57c235$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.2440558.8%238 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8760…a2c6backed BORRACHEIROS43c231.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf908…0aafbacked BORRACHEIROS37c216.22$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8013332.3%43 W · 90 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked BORRACHEIROS41c202.82$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.673,20245.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L-79.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…3ff8backed ALKA51c200$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9913649.3%67 W · 69 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb373…d97cbacked BORRACHEIROS37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7458745.5%267 W · 320 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked BORRACHEIROS30c199.82$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.314,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69b9…a5d5backed ALKA51c199.02$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.6211354%61 W · 52 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked ALKA41c197.15$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.291,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0ba9…a8d8backed ALKA53c187.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.0340666.3%269 W · 137 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0054…59ffbacked ALKA61c182.49$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.1712957.4%74 W · 55 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f4e…abebbacked BORRACHEIROS52c177.43$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.671346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed BORRACHEIROS39c175$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2539440.4%159 W · 235 L+30.0wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+20.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb72…6532backed BORRACHEIROS38c173$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.477855.1%43 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+29.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed BORRACHEIROS24c170.83$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4126344.1%116 W · 147 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed BORRACHEIROS24c166.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030939.2%121 W · 188 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x31e7…fe2abacked BORRACHEIROS24c166.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4022037.3%82 W · 138 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ed8…7559backed BORRACHEIROS37c161.46$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6021950.2%110 W · 109 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaa5…4859backed BORRACHEIROS34c155.24$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.243959%23 W · 16 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+26%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked ALKA49c153$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.032,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked ALKA58c150$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6348948.9%239 W · 250 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8da3…7c12backed ALKA72c149.9$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3752369.4%363 W · 160 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e09…22febacked BORRACHEIROS58c138.93$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.483164.5%20 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x615d…bd5bbacked BORRACHEIROS49c137.35$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.955641.1%23 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbf9…d60bbacked ALKA63c136.73$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.591827.8%5 W · 13 L-4.5wins-0.25per pick53cpaid-57.6%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x7129…4517backed BORRACHEIROS37c135$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.951,07637.6%405 W · 671 L+34.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked BORRACHEIROS30c126.5$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.991,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked BORRACHEIROS40c126.29$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.652,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked BORRACHEIROS44c125$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.52,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed BORRACHEIROS36c125$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4539245.9%180 W · 212 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed ALKA58c124.81$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.084,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked ALKA63c121.4$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.925565.5%36 W · 19 L+8.0wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+37%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed ALKA60c119.61$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4380942.3%342 W · 467 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked ALKA61c119.56$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.52,34942.5%998 W · 1,351 L-72.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ac…2fb7backed ALKA71c115.62$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3417866.3%118 W · 60 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-7.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed BORRACHEIROS55c110$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.322,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xefa3…7585backed BORRACHEIROS43c108.65$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0777351.2%396 W · 377 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.