TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BNK FEARXof DN SOOPers, BNK FEARX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$418,393
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$449,452

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $418,393 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 241 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9db8…2effbacked DN SOOPers22c59,000$13,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,116.2720546.8%96 W · 109 L+16.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ce5…02b3backed DN SOOPers4c51,964$2,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,146.021050%0 W · 105 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c56…78d1backed BNK FEARX78c30,000$23,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,6001060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+29.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed DN SOOPers24c23,100$5,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,612.3519239.1%75 W · 117 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…45eebacked BNK FEARX79c20,000$15,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,20059558.3%347 W · 248 L-29.3wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed DN SOOPers3c16,495$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.541,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8627…5382backed DN SOOPers12c15,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80022355.2%123 W · 100 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed BNK FEARX80c14,825$11,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,980.3312840.6%52 W · 76 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked BNK FEARX76c11,700$8,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8108036.3%29 W · 51 L-13.6wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-37.4%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xef26…07c0backed DN SOOPers0c10,569$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.699016.7%15 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked DN SOOPers20c10,190$2,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,037.911,25937.6%473 W · 786 L+34.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed BNK FEARX78c10,000$7,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,25029447.6%140 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed BNK FEARX78c10,000$7,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.9943442.4%184 W · 250 L+18.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5c9…a452backed DN SOOPers21c9,100$1,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,91140%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed DN SOOPers19c8,851$1,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,722.759554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed DN SOOPers15c8,643$1,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,335.8732234.5%111 W · 211 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked BNK FEARX77c8,270$6,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,868.712754.3%69 W · 58 L+8.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3c5…6930backed BNK FEARX80c8,003$6,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,600.51637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-37.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf949…3220backed BNK FEARX76c8,000$6,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9208951.7%46 W · 43 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-10.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked DN SOOPers24c7,113$1,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,722.5649940.7%203 W · 296 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab3e…de25backed DN SOOPers21c6,500$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3651573.3%11 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.28per pick46cpaid+57%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked BNK FEARX77c6,477$4,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,489.7517444.8%78 W · 96 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed DN SOOPers18c5,182$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.2754529.7%162 W · 383 L-34.7wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-18.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed DN SOOPers22c5,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1001,09153.8%587 W · 504 L+38.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d83…d89cbacked DN SOOPers23c4,231$973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.125453.5%136 W · 118 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a1d…8986backed DN SOOPers20c3,879$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.0853047.2%250 W · 280 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd00…952dbacked BNK FEARX77c3,560$2,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.198060%48 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe98a…edffbacked DN SOOPers1c3,062$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.243826.3%10 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick13cpaid+311.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked DN SOOPers20c3,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed BNK FEARX79c2,852$2,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.141,82639.9%728 W · 1,098 L-61.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked BNK FEARX79c2,849$2,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.291,09252.4%572 W · 520 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed DN SOOPers1c2,634$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2241439.6%164 W · 250 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb2c…5280backed DN SOOPers21c2,600$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5462030%6 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed97…8932backed BNK FEARX79c2,532$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.65933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-33.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x968b…87f6backed BNK FEARX80c2,500$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5001353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed DN SOOPers22c2,452$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.9764247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed DN SOOPers21c2,281$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47916933.1%56 W · 113 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed DN SOOPers24c2,275$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.0720036.5%73 W · 127 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked BNK FEARX77c2,229$1,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.2224434.4%84 W · 160 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed DN SOOPers18c2,226$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.62,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4505…ec35backed BNK FEARX75c2,222$1,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.53951.3%20 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2759…2b38backed DN SOOPers25c2,209$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.082536%9 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ff1…2dd7backed DN SOOPers23c2,112$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.761741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4f7…a5e1backed DN SOOPers11c1,926$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.859037.8%34 W · 56 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba4f…b37bbacked BNK FEARX76c1,897$1,442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.34055%22 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcdc…4281backed BNK FEARX79c1,885$1,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.83857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a28…ff8cbacked DN SOOPers21c1,408$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30012246.7%57 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2fc…b1b4backed DN SOOPers20c1,379$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.0121751.2%111 W · 106 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked DN SOOPers21c1,271$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.8618841%77 W · 111 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed BNK FEARX75c1,256$942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31476142%320 W · 441 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked BNK FEARX75c1,255$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.7595041.6%395 W · 555 L-32.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0146…4d51backed DN SOOPers21c1,175$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.581526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d8a…f907backed DN SOOPers21c1,169$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.436844.1%30 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed BNK FEARX76c1,117$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.581,94048.1%934 W · 1,006 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b50…ea47backed DN SOOPers17c1,105$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.851,29426.6%344 W · 950 L+65.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7380…9019backed DN SOOPers15c1,104$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.56757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+32.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed DN SOOPers13c1,093$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.072,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed DN SOOPers18c1,009$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.321,59343.8%697 W · 896 L-74.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x179d…26abbacked DN SOOPers25c1,001$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.1753829.9%161 W · 377 L-19.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked DN SOOPers20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20017339.3%68 W · 105 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked BNK FEARX77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23029738.7%115 W · 182 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x581d…2b06backed DN SOOPers20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20048035.4%170 W · 310 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe881…19abbacked DN SOOPers1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104314.9%21 W · 410 L-1.8wins0.00per pick5cpaid-86.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea58…0308backed DN SOOPers5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507431.1%23 W · 51 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-20.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked DN SOOPers2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2034244.7%153 W · 189 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc30…1b31backed BNK FEARX80c900$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x065b…3a49backed DN SOOPers20c899$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x302b…7a54backed DN SOOPers11c889.58$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.852231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bf1…3018backed BNK FEARX75c867.6$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.91050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked DN SOOPers8c860.48$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6466845.5%304 W · 364 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…fd05backed DN SOOPers21c753.02$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1563250%16 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+35.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x96f8…2560backed BNK FEARX79c742.68$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.5637660.9%229 W · 147 L-28.1wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-11.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked BNK FEARX80c732.45$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.4922748%109 W · 118 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c8…ce5cbacked DN SOOPers16c717.13$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.6948844.3%216 W · 272 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x495c…c9eabacked BNK FEARX79c647.58$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.992040%8 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb70c…34cabacked BNK FEARX80c625$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12515673.1%114 W · 42 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ba…b673backed DN SOOPers18c600$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1089028.9%26 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked BNK FEARX78c573.27$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.1224832.3%80 W · 168 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c09…0d70backed DN SOOPers10c571.97$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.926523.1%15 W · 50 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick26cpaid+22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b44…fcfcbacked DN SOOPers18c549.31$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.881947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed BNK FEARX77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11576953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c3…1331backed BNK FEARX80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10018553%98 W · 87 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed BNK FEARX79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1051,24242.6%529 W · 713 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca0…38babacked DN SOOPers20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,44343.4%626 W · 817 L+105.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x98a5…d074backed DN SOOPers8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4022932.3%74 W · 155 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1bfb…8beabacked DN SOOPers20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005246.2%24 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa212…9161backed DN SOOPers10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-52.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeeae…a2fabacked DN SOOPers21c486.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010237.3%38 W · 64 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1a…bfa2backed DN SOOPers21c479.62$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025223.1%12 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2888…f1a4backed DN SOOPers20c478.18$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5653932.5%175 W · 364 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d40…5739backed DN SOOPers21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009848%47 W · 51 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked DN SOOPers9c440.49$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.241,31847.3%624 W · 694 L-31.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd01…d95bbacked DN SOOPers12c438$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.56742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked DN SOOPers17c436.68$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2490537.5%339 W · 566 L-18.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked BNK FEARX75c436.32$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.0889050.6%450 W · 440 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd43f…0bb0backed DN SOOPers6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,13030%339 W · 791 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b2…8e7dbacked DN SOOPers21c393$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6723152.4%121 W · 110 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfaea…b079backed DN SOOPers4c389.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8513523.7%32 W · 103 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…ef07backed DN SOOPers26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10055145%248 W · 303 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed DN SOOPers26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003562.9%22 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.