TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9b44…fcfc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
84
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Europa Conference League, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Europa Conference League at 56 out of 100; worst Valorant at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5)backed Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$113.09
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked ThunderTalk Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$128.67
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Groupbacked Hanwha Life Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.82
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.85
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Groupbacked DN SOOPers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.88
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winnerbacked DN SOOPers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.07
LoL: Fuego vs Kits Esports - Game 3 Winnerbacked Fuego · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$32.2
LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stagebacked DN SOOPers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.88
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.54
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$51.18
LoL: LNG Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvanabacked LNG Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.31
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winnerbacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$73.98
LoL: Top Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+149.6%+$145.93
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$73.71
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Team WE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$303.88
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked JD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$46.83
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$9.46
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$133.92
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winnerbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+100%+$121.57
All 19 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+40.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Los Cabos Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Dalibor Svrcinabacked Dalibor Svrcina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.86
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex Michelsen vs Adrian Mannarinobacked Adrian Mannarino · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.01
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Naomi Osakabacked Ashlyn Krueger · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.53
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Taylor Fritz vs Kamil Majchrzakbacked Kamil Majchrzak · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$124.45
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Ashlyn Krueger vs Katie Boulterbacked Ashlyn Krueger · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$34.2
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Madison Keysbacked Liudmila Samsonova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$572.97
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Kei Nishikori vs Juncheng Shangbacked Kei Nishikori · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+300.2%+$344.92
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Lorenzo Musettibacked Lorenzo Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$68.29
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Tallon Griekspoorbacked Alejandro Tabilo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$140.03
San Marino: Daniel Rincon vs Juan Carlos Pradobacked Juan Carlos Prado · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$118.63
Targu Mures: Caijsa Hennemann vs Mia Pohankovabacked Mia Pohankova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.36
Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Roger Pascual vs Colton Smithbacked Roger Pascual · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+427%+$344.75
Hamburg European Open: Mayar Sherif vs Paula Badosabacked Paula Badosa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.62
Estoril Open: Tiago Torres vs Hugo Gastonbacked Tiago Torres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$132.83
Tampere: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes vs Diego Dedura-Palomerobacked Igor Ribeiro Marcondes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.28
All 15 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.55
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$40.57
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Metsbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.47
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Miami Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+150%+$165.98
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.02
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)backed Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$13.96
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$20.78
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Metsbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.64
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Philliesbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.36
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigersbacked Detroit Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$24.14
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigersbacked Detroit Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$6.95
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.76
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$126.95
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)backed Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.49
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$25.09
All 15 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffsbacked Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$7.37
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs largadosypelados (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries South American Qualifier Playoffsbacked MIBR · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$17.84
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked TheMongolz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$45.45
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$109.45
Counter-Strike: NIP vs paiN (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked NIP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.31
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)backed Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.78
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked Heroic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.02
Counter-Strike: magic vs 3DMAX (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifierbacked 3DMAX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$92.98
All 8 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick41cpaid-79.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Valorant — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+153.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+60.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Mls Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Mls — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-07-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6.43
Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5)backed Inter Miami CF · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.41
All 2 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-07-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+36.2%+$10.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Rodriguez vs. Uroš Medic (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Uroš Medic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$6.96
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.