MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76e7bf1d963e7451a298b2257e46e085a5baee028503d545e1a269bfbdd976a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 6,834$2,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,794.55 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 6,716$4,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,348.57 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 5,230$1,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,935.1 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 4,605$2,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,611.9 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 2,857$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 2,781$1,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 2,555$1,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.5 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 2,495$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.25 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 1,503$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.49 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 1,382$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.65 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 1,213$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.62 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 1,210$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.44 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 1,202$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.62 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…42ebbacked Washington Nationals | 77c | 1,093$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.39 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Washington Nationals | 63c | 1,051$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.67 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a26…1589backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 982$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.98 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 588.75$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.7 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 588.6$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.01 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 485.32$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.86 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Washington Nationals | 64c | 380.86$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.71 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 337.41$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.84 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 335.7$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 327.19$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.27 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 320.95$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.12 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals | 59c | 310.5$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.9 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 226.39$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.29 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 209.31$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.05 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 183.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 36c | 150$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 135.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 120.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 58.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 18c | 56.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 51.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Toronto Blue Jays | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 47.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 266 | 42.1%112 W · 154 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Washington Nationals | 69c | 43.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 43c | 41.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b44…fcfcbacked Washington Nationals | 66c | 41.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Washington Nationals | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 69c | 36.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Washington Nationals | 50c | 25.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Washington Nationals | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 18.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington NationalsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.