MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4c7c56e5a1adbb7a3638200ea2a105175682ad72008a99e2b0b8110e74ffe87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Washington Nationals, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1a2…14b8backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 13,151$4,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,865.74 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 7,078$4,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,618.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 5,032$3,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,901.74 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 1,709$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.86 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 1,316$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 1,249$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.47 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 800$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 795.97$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.01 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 750$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 599.53$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.74 | 260 | 56.5%147 W · 113 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 585$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.45 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 499.97$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.99 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 370.57$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.11 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 336.22$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.45 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 312.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.94 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 298$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.25 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 281$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.78 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Washington Nationals | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 156 | 39.1%61 W · 95 L | -11.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Washington Nationals | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals | 37c | 194.1$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 193.45$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Washington Nationals | 37c | 193$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 177.43$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 164.9$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 142.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 134.59$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Washington Nationals | 37c | 131.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 120$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 119.28$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 20c | 119$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 109.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 106.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 106$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 695 | 47.5%330 W · 365 L | -16.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 92.02$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…d536backed Washington Nationals | 44c | 65.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 53.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 47.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 47.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 31.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6458…2a3bbacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 31.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Washington Nationals | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 26.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 26.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 25.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 23.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x858c…84b1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 18.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 18.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington NationalsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.