MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x917644de8840351fca6ef6a0fefe1bc8b40863752d4685439e40f209e3a98d63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 7,322$2,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,840.57 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 61c | 6,268$3,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,436.33 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals | 73c | 716.52$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.47 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 594.49$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.47 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 20c | 513$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 21c | 505$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 33c | 75.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Washington Nationals | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 25c | 41.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42e9…80c7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 34c | 38.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 33.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Washington Nationals | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 25.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…8f2bbacked Washington Nationals | 47c | 25.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…00d5backed Washington Nationals | 48c | 25.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington NationalsToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington NationalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.