TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$105,044
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$104,862

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,044 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Over54c65,570$35,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,407.791,41449.5%700 W · 714 L-4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under46c42,054$19,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,708.974,36847.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L-79.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under46c17,262$7,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,321.4892554.1%500 W · 425 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under45c14,933$6,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,277.1111,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over54c6,214$3,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,338.244,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over53c5,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6501,07848.1%518 W · 560 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Under45c4,702$2,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,586.136246.1%167 W · 195 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Over55c4,365$2,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,400.751,88453%998 W · 886 L+16.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10e0…c736backed Over48c2,697$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.117951.4%92 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over56c2,509$1,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,414.978,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over59c2,423$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.574,40544.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L+80.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under46c2,257$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,211.356,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f82…9ae1backed Over55c1,795$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98723048.7%112 W · 118 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Under46c1,500$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81045451.3%233 W · 221 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under47c1,375$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.164,51548.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L-46.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over48c1,214$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.410,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under46c1,208$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.924,08757.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L+66.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under46c1,170$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.651,63549.3%806 W · 829 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09c6…291ebacked Over54c1,111$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002650%13 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Under47c1,111$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.831,35850.8%690 W · 668 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed Over53c1,100$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5838552.9%45 W · 40 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under46c1,024$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.962,31151%1,179 W · 1,132 L+25.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under46c1,017$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.112,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Under47c869.57$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.0938453.6%206 W · 178 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under46c816.13$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.713,50951%1,789 W · 1,720 L+53.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under46c767$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.751,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under47c749.99$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.055,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over53c687.06$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.778,59452.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L+508.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Over60c449.17$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.214,18750.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L+94.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under66c431.22$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.693,04148%1,461 W · 1,580 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb428…74c8backed Under47c402.08$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.0844845.8%205 W · 243 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Under46c392.49$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.1196553%511 W · 454 L+18.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Under46c356.48$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.632,17239.9%866 W · 1,306 L+1.6wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over30c326.98$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.862,09351.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L+44.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1230…c70bbacked Under46c326.09$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.0910260.8%62 W · 40 L+7.8wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+14.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under46c313.88$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.658,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Under45c308$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.911,84849.6%917 W · 931 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Under47c304.28$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.3487850.5%443 W · 435 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under47c289.92$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.631,02658.1%596 W · 430 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Under46c267.12$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.941,21953.9%657 W · 562 L+32.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked Over64c265$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.639653%210 W · 186 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd34e…c973backed Over53c190$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.71973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.20per pick54cpaid+35.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa384…3c9fbacked Over53c188.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10028147.7%134 W · 147 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6717…d6ebbacked Over55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10037256.5%210 W · 162 L+1.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under40c178.15$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.8910055%55 W · 45 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Over59c171$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.891,93941.2%799 W · 1,140 L-30.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Over54c168.48$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.982,04439.5%808 W · 1,236 L-24.6wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over50c137$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.51,53848.6%747 W · 791 L-5.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over54c129.63$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7035054.6%191 W · 159 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under46c109.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.182,41349.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L+22.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc785…4ef2backed Over59c103.96$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1316851.8%87 W · 81 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Under47c101.3$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.691,00344.6%447 W · 556 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4193…4853backed Over54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5484651.5%436 W · 410 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Over53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5369547.5%330 W · 365 L-16.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541,81949.3%896 W · 923 L-24.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Under48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5255146.8%258 W · 293 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Over54c93$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2217348%83 W · 90 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40f5…55b9backed Over55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504546.7%21 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Under46c89.62$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.541,24058.1%721 W · 519 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Under46c86.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9530155.1%166 W · 135 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17af…2a45backed Over54c85.19$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4611350.4%57 W · 56 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c59…14cebacked Over53c71.85$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0830%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x97f3…6a1abacked Over53c71.85$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x82f3…5cd4backed Under45c64.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.626240.3%25 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Over60c64.88$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.255645.3%252 W · 304 L-17.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4732…f40dbacked Under47c61.17$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4216539.4%65 W · 100 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe00b…256fbacked Over52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510850.9%55 W · 53 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Under46c47.32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.758358.5%341 W · 242 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x212b…0ba5backed Over45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2053655.8%299 W · 237 L+22.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Over45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2046152.1%240 W · 221 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc1…53babacked Over60c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243834.2%13 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-36.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Under44c37.84$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.091,27857%728 W · 550 L+33.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2b2…633abacked Over54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Over55c36.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2552955.6%294 W · 235 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Over53c33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4924450%122 W · 122 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecae…c544backed Over56c31.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.655448.2%267 W · 287 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a8d…7688backed Over55c31.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1724149%118 W · 123 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Over55c30.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.621,21250%606 W · 606 L+5.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7319…c664backed Under47c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.930928.5%88 W · 221 L-46.7wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-38.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Over45c29.93$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4748851.6%252 W · 236 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under47c29.18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4711852.5%62 W · 56 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x166f…632abacked Over52c28.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.96944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under47c27.72$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.693,84142.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x914a…9642backed Over55c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.757139.4%28 W · 43 L-8.9wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-26.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x73bd…b576backed Under42c24$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9227557.1%157 W · 118 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28f7…404dbacked Under46c23.91$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9147646.2%220 W · 256 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Over55c21.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.752,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bc5…7ac4backed Over53c20.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115246.2%24 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over54c19.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.483,46051.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L+107.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e4a…4efebacked Over55c18.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.187647.4%36 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under63c17.68$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.545,81243.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L-188.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.