TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Los Cabos Open, Qualification: Roger Pascual vs Colton Smith

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Roger Pascualof Roger Pascual, Colton Smith
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$189,856
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$202,442

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,856 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 227 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6982…a165backed Colton Smith45c13,468$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,00062956.9%358 W · 271 L+0.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x495d…68d8backed Colton Smith73c9,369$6,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,866.361136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Roger Pascual41c6,275$2,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,708.598,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Colton Smith46c6,027$2,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,752.8125144.6%112 W · 139 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid0%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Roger Pascual44c5,429$2,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,039.996,43954.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L+285.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked Colton Smith28c5,284$1,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,497.1736545.2%165 W · 200 L+0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48ee…0db4backed Colton Smith1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5054547.9%261 W · 284 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ed…ee18backed Roger Pascual78c3,935$3,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866.593060%18 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Colton Smith58c3,574$2,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,058.6246453%246 W · 218 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a9…e35abacked Roger Pascual36c3,473$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,222.449558.9%56 W · 39 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Roger Pascual55c3,239$1,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,451.334,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed Colton Smith42c2,888$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,215.165350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Roger Pascual58c2,633$1,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.8662140.7%253 W · 368 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f64…9ca2backed Roger Pascual59c2,563$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.483751.4%19 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf83b…44a2backed Roger Pascual20c2,563$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,062.554541.7%227 W · 318 L+18.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Roger Pascual33c2,211$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,482.454,18544.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L+14.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaa3…e22bbacked Roger Pascual80c2,133$1,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.684650%23 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Colton Smith57c1,670$952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.911647.4%55 W · 61 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5120…b26bbacked Colton Smith80c1,262$1,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0063243.8%14 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9772…3c18backed Colton Smith80c1,209$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.934459.1%26 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1a9…e2dbbacked Colton Smith75c1,150$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.448666.3%57 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9db…6789backed Colton Smith21c1,138$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.435957.6%34 W · 25 L+7.4wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+8.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Roger Pascual38c1,001$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.124,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8840…f51abacked Colton Smith2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20620%0 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0103…5ca8backed Colton Smith66c968.86$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+63.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c8…a25cbacked Colton Smith25c900$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.516451.8%85 W · 79 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Colton Smith55c835.81$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.3111,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Colton Smith40c821.99$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.0858021.9%127 W · 453 L+2.5wins0.00per pick21cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Colton Smith57c814.51$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.042,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Roger Pascual40c801.01$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.181,36338.3%522 W · 841 L+8.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Roger Pascual61c757.91$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.6170537.6%265 W · 440 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Roger Pascual25c739$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.6439135.8%140 W · 251 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf636…5465backed Roger Pascual25c733.53$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.498252.4%43 W · 39 L+10.5wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+36.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xea97…5ac0backed Colton Smith57c713.47$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.681070%7 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Roger Pascual52c700$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.659,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Roger Pascual40c659.54$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.452,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Roger Pascual47c649.69$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.647,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e73…ac97backed Colton Smith67c595.33$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020452.5%107 W · 97 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Roger Pascual64c587.01$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.191,62652.7%857 W · 769 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Roger Pascual53c566.04$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.041,68150%841 W · 840 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a1…ceb5backed Roger Pascual27c555.56$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.568234.1%28 W · 54 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Roger Pascual70c543.6$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.252,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f0a…60f7backed Colton Smith70c492.29$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.521145.5%5 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick66cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c79…ddf6backed Colton Smith76c478.63$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.812242.6%52 W · 70 L-18.8wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-27%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Colton Smith75c476.76$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.573,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Colton Smith3c436$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.084,60248.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L+34.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Roger Pascual54c434.38$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.941,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b44…fcfcbacked Roger Pascual19c425.49$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.751546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+40.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Roger Pascual36c423.57$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.85,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Roger Pascual37c418.52$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.191,79546.6%837 W · 958 L+20.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…5cd6backed Roger Pascual44c382.06$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.0618731%58 W · 129 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed Colton Smith71c377.22$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.0717857.3%102 W · 76 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Roger Pascual44c377$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.1256153.7%301 W · 260 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef29…2f1ebacked Colton Smith80c375$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,11145.3%503 W · 608 L-35.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3556…af4fbacked Roger Pascual16c360.31$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.6627724.9%69 W · 208 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8492…f17cbacked Roger Pascual29c349.34$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.3463252.8%334 W · 298 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x472b…5d5fbacked Roger Pascual77c345.6$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.494665.2%30 W · 16 L+4.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed Roger Pascual29c344.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.839849%48 W · 50 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c9d…5a06backed Roger Pascual45c339.42$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.682365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Roger Pascual35c319.22$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.661,87016%299 W · 1,571 L-314.3wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-65.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x56f1…e83ebacked Colton Smith72c303.49$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22026253.8%141 W · 121 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc31d…6acabacked Roger Pascual50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60f8…809cbacked Roger Pascual70c291.63$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.49616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-76.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Colton Smith71c285.99$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.0596755.3%535 W · 432 L+3.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4732…f40dbacked Roger Pascual51c273.55$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.9123530.2%71 W · 164 L-13.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-32.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2da4…31bfbacked Colton Smith60c269.95$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1624949%24 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbc6…9092backed Roger Pascual45c263.08$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.236621.6%79 W · 287 L+1.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Colton Smith67c242.23$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.328,50542.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L-166.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x885f…8ed9backed Colton Smith76c239$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.6411144.1%49 W · 62 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Colton Smith63c236.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3171…b991backed Colton Smith74c235.14$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17333551.9%174 W · 161 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bf8…5b60backed Colton Smith44c229.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011559.1%68 W · 47 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a14…9fe4backed Roger Pascual45c218.36$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.140935.7%146 W · 263 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Roger Pascual61c210.64$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.883,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b14…3ca3backed Colton Smith48c206.25$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9949447.2%233 W · 261 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Roger Pascual27c206.01$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.3939648%190 W · 206 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68da…37b5backed Colton Smith42c204.76$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864427.3%12 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Roger Pascual42c200.89$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.521,70844.8%766 W · 942 L-18.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Roger Pascual45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.694,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3252…1d21backed Colton Smith27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5452341.5%217 W · 306 L-12.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Roger Pascual34c198$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.681,82241%747 W · 1,075 L-30.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecae…c544backed Roger Pascual39c189$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.1343144.8%193 W · 238 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed Roger Pascual53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6824452.5%128 W · 116 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5151…645cbacked Roger Pascual27c188.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.197549.3%37 W · 38 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a62…4ab9backed Colton Smith31c187.1$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5814536.6%53 W · 92 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf22b…ed02backed Colton Smith22c184.5$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402412.5%3 W · 21 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf983…39a0backed Roger Pascual34c184.17$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.8410135.6%36 W · 65 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-4.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8a9d…de77backed Colton Smith41c182.93$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbad…4f53backed Roger Pascual44c181.82$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.8235444.6%158 W · 196 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Roger Pascual44c180.77$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.2355149.7%274 W · 277 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f0c…7047backed Colton Smith56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025633.6%86 W · 170 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x31a1…1227backed Roger Pascual59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.494351.2%22 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb032…fd99backed Roger Pascual50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$804551.1%23 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e7f…cdffbacked Colton Smith79c159.41$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.453542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Colton Smith74c155.98$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.6955941.3%231 W · 328 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Roger Pascual37c150.86$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.0465157.1%372 W · 279 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Roger Pascual53c150.06$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.542,60146.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L+18.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Roger Pascual44c150$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841,23446.3%571 W · 663 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Roger Pascual33c149.6$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.2366831.3%209 W · 459 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40e5…e6adbacked Roger Pascual20c146.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.9710310.7%11 W · 92 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.