MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x830f387b343c91cd36eaa468d26911f48fc3fab5301a509199fa830afcc49454
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 56c | 12,055$6,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,279.2 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 10,932$4,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,720.99 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 40c | 8,796$3,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,287.19 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 60c | 6,063$3,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,637.8 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 41c | 5,839$2,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,474.13 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 49c | 2,613$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.89 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 60c | 2,371$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422.43 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 60c | 2,067$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.13 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 60c | 1,159$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.48 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 60c | 1,024$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.4 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 55c | 721.26$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.01 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…235ebacked Over | 40c | 707.53$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.01 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 11c | 668.13$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.08 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 7c | 542.17$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbf…70a1backed Under | 71c | 466.27$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.67 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Under | 45c | 363$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.65 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 55c | 350$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.95 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 37c | 297.32$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.31 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 60c | 271.99$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.99 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 60c | 265.12$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.3 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c2…dc0bbacked Over | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 14c | 230.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b44…fcfcbacked Under | 41c | 215.17$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.95 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 12c | 214.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 9c | 211.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 60c | 195$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 41c | 192.06$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.06 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 44c | 150.63$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.28 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 29c | 141.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 42c | 127$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 58c | 127$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 455 | 45.7%208 W · 247 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 78c | 124$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 61c | 120$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 40c | 114.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.91 | 495 | 40.2%199 W · 296 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 40c | 108.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.2 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 40c | 102.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.47 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked Over | 40c | 100.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Under | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35fd…6d85backed Over | 60c | 82.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9a…3333backed Over | 61c | 80.42$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Over | 64c | 78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…f1b1backed Under | 71c | 72.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Over | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 394 | 40.9%161 W · 233 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,201 | 49.1%590 W · 611 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Under | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Under | 41c | 59.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 50c | 51.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 60c | 48.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 62c | 48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 62c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 40c | 29.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 62c | 26.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 41c | 26.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Over | 60c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…f17fbacked Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Over | 55c | 21.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…a6e3backed Over | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 66c | 16.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 2.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 3.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.