MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd08788fd8bf367c3468143828dbeba384d1b6f4bbb90ba08f0f558d09b4dce85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,281
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,281 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 8,025$3,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,396.42 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 55c | 6,968$3,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,826.4 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 5,019$2,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,529.55 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 43c | 3,401$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,935.08 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…7690backed Over | 42c | 1,022$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 61c | 923.07$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.73 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 65c | 725$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.75 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 52c | 596.13$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 43c | 425.82$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.27 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 49c | 311.55$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.86 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 41c | 277.76$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.88 | 1,013 | 50.3%510 W · 503 L | +51.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 56c | 271.23$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.31 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a1…296fbacked Over | 36c | 269.81$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Under | 41c | 246.59$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.54 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd131…eb1abacked Under | 68c | 147.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c2…dc0bbacked Under | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 52c | 111.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 42c | 81.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 40c | 74.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 44c | 54.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b8…81a9backed Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aee…2457backed Over | 59c | 33.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 60c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb15e…7c54backed Over | 59c | 18.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 2.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 3.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.