MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc422940bb11fe7d1bb02abf8dc167c66ed88da9728b21d99230817a879b804c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 38c | 11,479$4,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,170.25 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 6,800$4,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,189.93 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 52c | 5,207$2,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,724.14 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 61c | 1,280$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.41 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 1,149$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 1,120$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.6 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 52c | 815.38$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Over | 47c | 531.91$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.91 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 56c | 506.61$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.7 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 38c | 450.91$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.03 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 61c | 399.86$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.28 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 50c | 384.85$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.04 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 51c | 201.95$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.33 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Under | 48c | 196$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 41c | 181.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 76c | 167.97$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.61 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9a…3333backed Under | 71c | 161$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.31 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 51c | 139.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 63c | 102.87$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 53c | 102.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…932fbacked Under | 52c | 90.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 133 | 57.9%77 W · 56 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Under | 52c | 84.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 37c | 57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…5019backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 30c | 41.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5115…8c77backed Under | 63c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 61c | 28.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb15e…7c54backed Over | 44c | 27.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 61c | 25.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15a7…5ed1backed Over | 62c | 22.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 242 | 63.6%154 W · 88 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 3.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 2.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.